Tim O'Reilly
2008/05/24
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After reading endless pieces about Microsoft's obsession with search, I am forced to offer the following theory: penis envy (from Wikipedia):
Microsoft was once motivated by its own Big Hairy Audacious Goal: "a computer on every desk and in every home." They achieved that goal, and ever since, they've drifted. Now their only goal seems to be to stay on top of the heap. They need to stop focusing on eating other people's lunch and start thinking deeply about what kind of goals might stretch the company once again. "Organize all the world's information" is already taken, but there are a lot of other things that need doing, that Microsoft is uniquely capable of, and that would energize the creativity and passion of Microsoft's employees. What's more (as I'll get to later) there is a much bigger game afoot, and one that Microsoft would be far wiser to focus on. Meanwhile, Yahoo! has let itself be defined by the same kind of penis envy. Here is a business that has beaten Google in area after area, that is unquestionably the #1 media company on the net, and yet has let itself be defined by the one area in which it is #2 -- and where it could be much more profitable and successful by partnering with #1 than by competing with them. So, my advice to Yahoo!: continue with your plan to outsource search to Google, just like you did before 2002, and plow those increased profits and reduced costs into your own innovation, strengthening the areas where you are #1, exploring new ideas that will make YOUR users insanely happy, and generally focusing on what makes Yahoo! great, rather than on what doesn't. That is, unless Microsoft makes you so good a deal for your search assets that you just can't say no. But either way, let yourself be quit of the destructive competition and focus on adding real value for your users. My advice to Microsoft: outsource your search to Google too! Of course, I don't really expect you to do that. As Todd Bishop wrote in a piece called The Rest of the Motto back in 2004: ...people who have been following the company since the early days point out that the stated goal was actually, "A computer on every desk and in every home, running Microsoft software." In an October 1995 interview with Fortune magazine, for example, Bill Gates said: " ... I still believe in our vision -- a computer on every desk and in every home, all running Microsoft software." Microsoft has long operated on the model of platform as lever for lock-in and competitive advantage, or as Tolkien put it, "One ring to rule them all." But as I've been saying in my advocacy about Web 2.0 from the beginning, there is another model, represented by both Linux and the Internet, that might be called small pieces loosely joined. (I don't use the term in quite the same way as in David Weinberger's eponymous book (linked just previously), but the phrase is just too right to ignore.) The Unix philosophy, laid out so brilliantly in The Unix Programming Environment, is of a network of cooperating tools, each doing one thing well. This philosophy took root on the internet as well, and has proven to be an enormous engine of innovation. I believe that we're collectively working on an Internet Operating System, and that it will ultimately look more like Unix than it looks like Windows. That is, it will be an aggregate of best of breed tools produced by an army of independent actors, all playing by the same rules so that those tools work together to produce a whole greater than the sum of the parts. Fighting over search is a bit like the Free Software Foundation re-implementing cat, ls, sort, and all the other Unix utilities that were already available in the Berkeley distributions of Unix. The real problem was solved by someone outside the FSF, when Linux Torvalds wrote a kernel, a missing piece that became the gravitational center of Linux, the center around which all of the other projects could coalesce, which made them more valuable not by competing with them but by completing them. Don't get me wrong: I'm not saying that there isn't enormous room for competition, and that competition isn't good for the market. Compete where you have ideas that can really change the game, but don't play me-too. So let's assume that Google has won at search, or close enough to make no difference. Is Microsoft better off trying to reimplement cat and ls, or trying to figure out what's still missing from the Internet Operating System? While they are locked in penis envy, all the really cute girls are going out with startups :-) So think hard about the future internet OS: ubiquitous computing, with a computer not just on every desktop and in every home, or even every phone and every camera, but in everyday devices, clothing, shopping carts, cars, pens, toys, buildings, roads, the power grid, even human bodies--and yes, lots of server farms. An infrastructure of real-time data services across that "network of networks," with search (and search-based-advertising) only one of many such services. As David Stutz once wrote: Useful software written above the level of the single device will command high margins for a long time to come. This is the real Web 2.0, the web as platform. Search and its advertising economy is only one subsystem of that platform. I know there are lots of people at Microsoft Research already working on key parts of this vision. Get behind them. Pour resources into the future, not the past. Meanwhile, there will be a lot of client devices in our connected future. And the connected devices that are the most successful will be the ones that are most open, the ones that are best for using ALL the services that are popping up out there, not just the ones that are part of a single vendor stack. The internet operating system is still in its infancy, perhaps at the level of Windows 3.1 (a simple, flawed GUI skin over DOS) or the GNU system without the Linux kernel. Microsoft has an enormous opportunity to build client software and devices that are ideal citizens of the software cooperative that the internet is becoming. (Aside: Apple's apparent success with an "own the stack, from the device to cloud" strategy is misleading. With both the iPod and the iPhone, a key element of success is precisely the device's openness to what Apple does not own. Imagine an iPod where you could only buy music from the Apple music store instead of ripping your own CDs (this is Amazon's mistake with the Kindle). Imagine an iphone without the Safari browser (opening a world of web apps to the phone) or the Google Maps application. Apple owns key elements of the stack, but it's a permeable stack, and getting more so.)
Learn from the best, partner with the best, fill in the gaps, and build for the future. Above all, remember that great companies have "big, hairy audacious goals." Energize Microsoft by pursuing a seemingly impossible goal that can change the world for the better.
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翻译:xiaochong 读了那些没完没了的关于微软对搜索的执迷的文章,我不得不提出一个理论:阳物嫉妒(Wikipedia):
微软一度为它自己的远大理想奋斗着:“每个家庭、每张桌子上都有计算机。”他们完成了这个目标,而且自此就迷失了。现在他们唯一的目标好像就是待在顶端。微软应该停止图谋别人的午餐而开始深入思考什么样的目标才可能让公司再一次振作起来。“组织世界上所有的信息”已经被捷足先登了,但是还有很多其他事情可以去做,也只有微软能做,而且将会激发微软员工的创造力和热情。况且(我后面会谈到)还有个更大的事情在酝酿,微软如果认真对待会显得更明智。 同时,Yahoo!已经将自己局限在同样的阳物嫉妒之中。这是一个Google胜利的商业领域,Google无疑是网上第一媒体公司,yahoo!将自己局限在自己是第二的领域里——在这里与第一合作会比与第一竞争更有利可图、更成功。 所以我给Yahoo!的建议是:继续把搜索业务外包给Google,就像他们2002年之前一样,然后向你自己的创新方面努力,增加利润,降低成本,加强你是第一的那些领域,开拓那些让你的客户真正愉快的主意,全面扑向能使Yahoo!更伟大的事业上去,而不是相反的一些东西。除非微软真能给你的搜索业务开出一个无法拒绝的好价钱。但无论如何,请退出那些破坏性的竞争,将一切集中到为你的用户增加真正的价值上。 我给微软的建议:把你的搜索业务也外包给Google! 当然我不是真指望你这样做。就像Todd Bishop在2004年“座右铭的其余部分”中写的:
微软一直以来都致力于将平台作为核心竞争力,就像Tolkien所言“魔戒之王”。然而正如我在推广Web 2.0一开始就讲到的还有另一个模式,以Linux和Internet为代表。这可以被称作“小部件松散结合”。我不像David Weinberger在他那本书里那样用这个词,但是这个词非常贴切。Unix体系(在Unix Programming Environment里有非常好的论述)是协作工具的网络,每一个工具擅长一件事。这一体系在Internet上也生根发芽,并且成为创新的巨大引擎。 我相信我们会在Internet操作系统上共同工作,而且这一体系将最终像Unix更多一些,而不是Windows。也就是说它将是一个由独立参与者开发的优秀工具的集合,所有部分都遵照相同的规则以至于这些工具共同工作产生的效果大于每一部分的总和。 几方就搜索业务的竞争很像FSF(自由软件协会)重新实现cat、ls、sort等Unix工具的情形。这些工具在Berkeley Unix中都有了。真正的问题结果被FSF以外的人解决了,Linus Torvalds写了内核,缺失的这一部分成为了Linux的核心,所有其他项目围绕着核心。真正使所有工具更有价值的是去完善它们,而不是与其竞争。 不要曲解我:我不是说不再有竞争的空间了,不是说竞争对于市场不利。到你真正有想法的地方去竞争,而不是仅仅跟着人家跑。 所以我们假定Google已经在搜索领域胜利了,或者几乎胜利了。微软仅凭重做cat和ls还能有利可图?或者找找看Internet操作系统还有什么落下的作一作?他们都禁锢在阳物嫉妒上了,那些真正可爱女孩都在和年轻人约会:) 所以认真思考一下未来Internet操作系统:普适计算,计算机不仅仅在每个家庭每张桌子上,乃至每个电话、每个照相机上,还要在所有日常设备上,衣服,购物车,汽车,钢笔,玩具,建筑物,道路,电网,甚至人体——还有服务器群。一个跨越“网络的网络”的实时数据服务的基础结构,搜索(以及基于搜索的广告业务)只是众多服务中的一个。正如David Stutz 写的:为单独设备写的有用软件将在未来很长一段时间里有利可图。 这是真正的Web 2.0,以Web为平台。搜索和它的广告经济只是这个平台上的子系统。 我知道在微软研究院已经有许多人在为这个目标的一些关键部分工作了。支持他们。将资源投向未来,而不是过去。与我们联接的未来还有许多客户设备。而且最成功的联接设备将是最开放的那些,将是使用所有出现的服务最出色的那些,而不是仅仅使用单一提供商的服务。Internet操作系统还处于初级阶段,也许就像Windows 3.1的阶段(DOS外面套一个简单、不怎么漂亮的GUI马甲)或者相当于没有Linux内核的GNU系统。微软有非常多的机会去构建客户软件和设备,它们会成为Internet即将演变的软件协作上的出色的一员。 (另外:Apple通过他自己从设备到云完整的体系取得了显而易见的成功,这一战略很具有误导性。无论iPod还是iPhone成功的关键是设备对非Apple资源的开放性。想象一下如果iPod只能从Apple音乐商店购买音乐而不能从你自己的CD上复制音乐(这也是Amazon在Kindle上犯的错误)。想象一下一个没有Safari浏览器(将iPhone联接至Web应用世界)或Google地图应用的iPhone。Apple拥有这一体系中的关键因素,但是这个体系是可渗透的,而且愈发如此。) 向最优秀的学习,与最优秀的结成伙伴,填补空白,构建未来。最重要的是要记住伟大的公司都有“远大理想”。追求那些能使世界变得更美好的、看似不可能完成的目标将使微软公司充满活力。 |
Discussion
尖锐,深刻。这种心理状态应该在很多问题上都有反映。