What good is collective intelligence if it doesn't make us smarter?(如果集体智慧没让我们更聪明那它还有哪些益处?)

Tim O'Reilly Tim O'Reilly 2008/07/07

Two stories I read yesterday morning are worth sharing. The first, an editorial by science-fiction writer Robert Silverberg, was entitled The Death of Gallium, a meditation on the increasing scarcity of valuable elements like gallium, used in flat panel TVs and computer displays, which is estimated to be used up by 2017. Other less rare but equally important minerals are also expected to run out within decades. The other, a New York Times story entitled Asleep at the Spigot, is summarized well by its subtitle: "A thirst for oil comes back to haunt a nation of gas guzzlers." It's a short but poignant history of the many warnings and missed opportunities to change our gas guzzling habits during the seventies, eighties and nineties, when the eventual shortage was apparent, but the political will to make changes was lacking in the face of opposition from companies interested in maintaining the status quo, backed up by a short-sighted electorate.

These stories are a great way to highlight the focus of the 2008 Web 2.0 Summit Launchpad. We've entitled the business plan competition "Web meets world," described as follows:

For Launch Pad 2008, the focus will be on startups in the fields of alternative energies, social entreprenuerialism, microfinance, developing economies, political action, renewable technologies, and the like. We'll be particularly interested in where these companies display significant cross over with the web, of course, but this will not be required.

This might seem like quite a departure for the Web 2.0 Summit, the conference that made its name by celebrating the revolution in the consumer internet caused by the move to the internet as platform, service based business models, and social media. Or is it? After all, I've argued all along that the real heart of Web 2.0 is the ability of networked applications to harness collective intelligence. Yes, you can harness collective intelligence to build amazing internet businesses, as the past five years have shown us.

But what good is collective intelligence if it doesn't make us smarter?

In an era of looming scarcities, economic disruption, and the possibility of catastrophic ecological change, it's time for us all to wake up, to take our new "superpowers" seriously, and to use them to solve problems that really matter.

The potential is huge. In recent months, I've seen fascinating startups for earth monitoring, carbon markets, energy efficiency of electronic devices, and home energy management. There are lots of projects for open government and responsive politics, which in an ideal world should have commercial potential. There are world-changing opportunities in collaborative scientific research, early detection of infectious disease outbreaks, personalized medicine, resource discovery, new materials, you name it.

That's why we've titled this edition of the Web 2.0 Summit The Opportunity of Limits. As John Battelle wrote so eloquently on the Summit web site:

In the first four years of the Web 2.0 Summit, we've focused on our industry's challenges and opportunities, highlighting in particular the business models and leaders driving the Internet economy. But as we pondered the theme for this year, one clear signal has emerged: our conversation is no longer just about the Web. Now is the time to ask how the Web—its technologies, its values, and its culture—might be tapped to address the world's most pressing limits. Or put another way—and in the true spirit of the Internet entrepreneur—its most pressing opportunities.

As we convene the fifth annual Web 2.0 Summit, our world is fraught with problems that engineers might charitably classify as NP hard—from roiling financial markets to global warming, failing healthcare systems to intractable religious wars. In short, it seems as if many of our most complex systems are reaching their limits.

It strikes us that the Web might teach us new ways to address these limits. From harnessing collective intelligence to a bias toward open systems, the Web's greatest inventions are, at their core, social movements. To that end, we're expanding our program this year to include leaders in the fields of healthcare, genetics, finance, global business, and yes, even politics.

Increasingly, the leaders of the Internet economy are turning their attention to the world outside our industry. And conversely, the best minds of our generation are turning to the Web for solutions. At the fifth annual Web 2.0 Summit, we'll endeavor to bring these groups together.


In short, we're looking for great startups to introduce to the world in the Web 2.0 Summit launchpad in San Francisco in November. Here's how it works: You start by filling out the application form (by no later than September 10.) If you catch our attention, you'll be contacted to provide a pitch to our panel of VCs, who will consider your presentation as if for funding. Six to eight finalists will appear on stage at the conference, with audience voting for additional feedback.


The full list of participating VCs will be announced shortly, but will include both internet and cleantech VCs. So far we've confirmed Chris Albinson of Panorama Capital, Vinod Khosla of Khosla Ventures, and Mike Goguen of Sequoia Capital.

翻译:西门吹雪

昨天我读的两篇报道非常值得与大家分享。第一篇是科幻作家Robert Silverberg的评论——“The Death of Gallium”,思考了像镓这样的贵重元素与日俱增的稀缺,镓被用来制造平板电视和计算机显示器,估计到2017年就将被用尽。其他一些重要的矿产资源也将在几十年内消耗殆尽。另一篇是纽约时报的文章“Asleep at the Spigot”,它的副标题一语中的:“对石油的渴望阴魂不散,又一次回到这个嗜油如命的国家。”七十年代、八十年代、九十年代是一段短暂但却不平静的历史,充满很多警告,但我们失去了改掉依赖石油的恶习的机遇,当危机出现时,希望有所改变的政治家又面临那些既得利益公司的反对,这些公司希望保持现状,他们还得到了一些短视的选民的支持。

这两篇报道也印证了2008 Web 2.0 Summit Launchpad的主题。我们已经将其命名为“Web拥抱世界”,如下面所述:

今年的LaunchPad将把重点放在诸多领域的创新公司,包括替代能源、社会化企业创新精神、小额信贷、发展中经济体、政治行动、可再生能源技术等等。我们尤其感兴趣这些公司如何与Web结合,当然这也不是必需的。

这似乎与以往Web 2.0 Summit不同,Web 2.0 Summit向来以展示Internet变革著称,包括Internet作为平台、基于服务的商业模式以及社交媒体。是这样吗?毕竟长期以来我们坚信Web 2.0的真正核心是通过网络应用来驾驭集体智慧的能力。你能够通过驾驭集体智慧来构建出色的网络商业,过去五年也确实如此。

但是如果它不能让我们变得更聪明还会有什么益处?

我们身处这样一个时代,迫在眉睫的资源匮乏,经济崩溃,可能的灾难性的生态变化,是时候警醒了,认真地拿起我们新的“超级武器”,用它们来解决真正的问题。

潜力是巨大的。最近几个月我看到一些迷人的创业公司,涉及地球监测、碳市场、电子设备的能源效率以及家庭能源管理方面。对于开放的政府和积极响应的政治家有许多项目,它们在理想世界里应该有商业潜力。其中蕴含着改变世界的机会,包括集体科学研究、传染病暴发的早期检测、个性化医疗、资源勘测、新材料,等等。

所以我们将今年的Web 2.0 Summit命名为“The Opportunity of Limits(危机蕴含的机遇)”。正如John Battelle在峰会网站上的精彩论述:

前四届Web 2.0峰会一直将重点放在我们这个产业的挑战和机遇上,强调商业模式和驱动互联网经济发展的领袖人物。但是今年一个非常明确的信号出现了:我们的对话不再局限在Web上。现在是时候思考Web以及相关技术、价值、文化如何能用来解决全世界面临的最紧迫的危机,或者换一种说法——本着互联网企业家的精神——最紧迫的机遇。

当我们在召集第五届年度Web 2.0峰会的时候,这个世界充满了问题,工程师们可能简单地将之归为NP问题——从混乱的金融市场到全球变暖,失败的医疗体系,到棘手的宗教战争。简言之,我们这个世界上很多最复杂的系统似乎正趋于极限、面临危机。

我们在想Web可能带来解决这些危机的新办法。从驾驭集体智慧到开放系统,Web最伟大最核心的发明是社会运动。所以我们扩展了今年的活动,将容纳各个领域的领导人物,包括卫生保健、遗传学、金融、全球化商业以及政治领域。

Internet经济中的领袖逐渐地将注意力转向这个产业之外的领域。相反我们这一代人中最优秀的一群人正在转向Web寻求解决方案。在第五届Web 2.0峰会上我们将努力把这些人聚集在一起。

简而言之,我们寻找优秀的新创公司,在11月份旧金山的Web 2.0峰会上介绍给全世界。你可以填写表单申请(不要迟于9月10日)。如果得到认同我们会联系你,并推荐给我们的风投小组,他们会认真地考察你的资料。在会议上最终入围的八家公司中的六家将会出现在台上,观众将会投票。

与会的风险投资公司将会在近期公布,名单将会包括互联网和清洁能源方面的风险投资。截止到目前已经确认的包括Panorama Capital的Chris Albinson、Khosla Ventures的Vinod Khosla以及Sequoia Capital的Mike Goguen。

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blog/tim/what-good-is-collective-intelligence.txt · 最后更改: 2008/09/08 由 radarman
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