Tim O'Reilly

photo_tim_m.jpgTim O'Reilly is the founder and CEO of O'Reilly Media, Inc., thought by many to be the best computer book publisher in the world. In addition to Foo Camps (“Friends of O'Reilly” Camps, which gave rise to the “un-conference” movement), O'Reilly Media also hosts conferences on technology topics, including the Web 2.0 Summit, the Web 2.0 Expo, the O'Reilly Open Source Convention, the Gov 2.0 Summit, and the Gov 2.0 Expo. Tim's blog, the O'Reilly Radar, “watches the alpha geeks” to determine emerging technology trends, and serves as a platform for advocacy about issues of importance to the technical community. Tim's long-term vision for his company is to change the world by spreading the knowledge of innovators. In addition to O'Reilly Media, Tim is a founder of Safari Books Online, a pioneering subscription service for accessing books online, and O'Reilly AlphaTech Ventures, an early-stage venture firm.

    Follow me on Twitter
    Tim O'Reilly是O'Reilly Media,Inc.的创始人和CEO,很多人认为O'Reilly Media是世界上最出色的计算机图书出版商。除Foo Camps (”Friends of O'Reilly”训练营,其带动了“非会议”风潮)之外O'Reilly Media还主持很多技术会议,包括Web 2.0峰会Web 2.0博览会O'Reilly Open Source大会Gov 2.0峰会Gov 2.0博览会。Tim的博客——O'Reilly Radar“关注超级极客”和新技术趋势,作为推广技术社区重要问题的平台。Tim关于公司的长远规划是通过传播创新人士的知识来改变世界。除了O'Reilly Media, Tim 还是Safari Books Online(一个开创性的在线图书订约服务)的创始人,O'Reilly AlphaTech Ventures(一家早期风险投资公司)的创始人。

    NHIN Direct: Open Healthcare and Government as a Platform

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2010-03-11

    In my advocacy around Government 2.0, I've been focused on the idea that government should act like a platform provider rather than a complete solution provider. That is, government should lay down rules of the road, create core functionality that others can build on, and then let the private sector compete to flesh out the offerings.

    Gov 2.0 Expo 2010 You'd never think it from the right-wing media hysteria around the administration's health care initiatives, but some of the best thinking about minimal government intervention is happening right now in healthcare. I met yesterday morning with Dr. David Blumenthal, the National Coordinator for healthcare policy, and I was struck by how he is focused on the idea of the least possible government intervention in the market. "We have to do as little as we have to do in order to have a strong probability to succeed," he told me.

    You might ask, "What is it that you have to do?" That is laid out in the 2009 Stimulus bill. Among many other things, the Stimulus allocates a large pot of money (some $20 billion) in direct payments to hospitals, medical practices, and other health care delivery organizations if they implement "meaningful use" of electronic health records. The idea is to jumpstart the adoption of electronic medical records, which have been demonstrated to have a big impact on lowering cost and improving patient care. (Here's a Markle Foundation report (pdf) that gives more detail on Meaningful Use.) No specific systems are mandated to achieve that meaningful use; that is left for the market to supply.

    There is also substantial funding for Blumenthal's office, the Office of the National Coordinator, or ONC. (This office was created by the Bush administration, but didn't receive substantial funding prior to the Recovery Act.) But rather than building a massive, centralized system for electronic health records, ONC's goal is to define the rules of the road for interchange of patient records. In internet-style, the expectation is that common protocols and file formats will allow vendors to compete on a level playing field to build the actual applications. But they aren't just writing paper standards; they are creating building blocks that actually implement those standards. (The internet analogy would be software like Bind, which implements the DNS protocol, and the root domain name servers, which for many years were funded by the US government.)

    I was swept from my meeting with Dr. Blumenthal into a planning meeting for NHIN Direct, an open system for interchange of patient records between physicians (and ultimately patients themselves), where I heard much the same message, which was summarized so eloquently by Dr. John Halamka on his blog yesterday morning:

    The NHIN Direct effort philosophy is expressed in design rules

    The golden standards rule of "rough consensus, working code" will be applied to this effort.

    Discuss disagreements in terms of goals and outcomes, not in terms of specific technical implementations.

    The NHIN Direct project will adhere to the following design principles agreed to by the HIT Standards Committee from the feedback provided to the Implementation Workgroup

    Keep it simple; think big, but start small; recommend standards as minimal as possible to support the business goal and then build as you go.

    Don’t let “perfect” be the enemy of “good enough”; go for the 80% that everyone can agree on; get everyone to send the basics (medications, problem list, allergies, labs) before focusing on the more obscure.

    Keep the implementation cost as low as possible; eliminate any royalties or other expenses associated with the use of standards.

    Design for the little guy so that all participants can adopt the standard and not just the best resourced.

    Do not try to create a one size fits all standard, it will be too heavy for the simple use cases.

    Separate content standards from transmission standards; i.e., if CCD is the html, what is the https?

    Create publicly available controlled vocabularies & code sets that are easily accessible / downloadable

    Leverage the web for transport whenever possible to decrease complexity & the implementers’ learning curve (“health internet”).

    Create Implementation Guides that are human readable, have working examples, and include testing tools.

    That should be music to the ears of any Internet developer, and should raise some serious doubts in the minds of any of you who have been swallowing the idea that somehow the Federal government wants to take over the medical system. There's some fresh thinking going on here, influenced by the best practices of open standards and rapid internet development, about how government can use interoperability to stimulate market activity to improve the medical system.

    NHIN Direct is only one of several projects that implement core functionality for interchange of electronic medical records. It is focused on simple use cases like exchange of medical records from a primary care physician to a specialist, or from one primary care physician to another, or from a physician to his patient. Other projects, like HHS Connect are focused on the much more complex problem of records interchange between large health providers such as the VA, the Department of Defense, and large hospital systems. This project demonstrates how interoperability can be used to reduce development costs by cooperation between agencies with overlapping missions.

    This is health reform in the trenches of technology, where there are enormous opportunities for cost savings and better care. There's really good thinking going on here. So don't believe what you read in the paper.

    Fellow Radar blogger Brian Ahier, who works as a health IT evangelist for a rural Oregon health cooperative, told me the following story last night, which illustrates how he counters the misunderstandings about electronic health records that he encounters in his daily work.

    Trying to help rural providers in adoption of electronic health records has its own unique challenges. Many of these physicians practice in what is commonly called "fly over country." And the residents in these rural communities tend to lean conservative. Bringing up the subject of digitizing his office, the country doctor says, "I don't want all of my patients' information put into this government database. I'm not going to be part of the government takeover of our health system." I try to explain that the information is not stored in some giant government database. He certainly doesn't want to hear about a federated architecture for health information exchange or standards and protocols for secure messaging. But when asked how clinical information gets to the emergency room for a doctor who is treating one of his patients, he says, "My nurse sends it by fax."

    So when I start to explain that his office can still keep the entire patient record, but sharing that data can be more securely and efficiently handled digitally, a light bulb seems to go on. When we talk about patient online access to their records and I draw the analogy to accessing your bank account over the Internet, we begin to turn a corner. We can leave the larger debate of health reform behind. It isn't long before he starts to agree that it might just be possible for health IT to improve quality, patient safety and clinical outcomes while eventually lowering costs. Overcoming some of the fears based on false assumptions is the first battle, and now we can start to look at some of the serious technical barriers ahead in this journey.

    The Convergence of Advertising and E-commerce

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2010-02-16

    With hundreds of millions of users paying to download music, applications and ebooks on mobile phones, with reports of Zynga generating hundreds of millions of dollars from selling virtual goods in social games, with startups like Square making mobile payment systems the hot new startup category, it's clear that e-commerce is poised to supplant advertising as the business model of choice for new startups.

    But that's only the beginning. A few weeks ago it occurred to me that there's a very real possibility that the next breakthrough in advertising itself is its convergence with e-commerce. Buying an app from the Android Market, I realized how those of us with smartphones have become accustomed to seamless purchases on our phone. That is, we search for an app, and then we buy it, directly from our search vendor.

    Isn't that after all the goal of advertising? To cause a transaction. So why not do away with the intermediate step of sending someone to a website for more information? Especially with the limited screen real estate on the phone, there isn't really room for the contextual text advertising that made Google its billions. Interstitial or popup ads are intrusive and unwelcome. But how much search activity on the phone is tied to commerce already? Find a restaurant nearby and make a reservation? Why not pay as well? Point Google Goggles at a bottle of wine you enjoyed at that restaurant, and have a few bottles more show up on your doorstep?

    This line of thought led me to the conclusion that Google, Apple, Microsoft, will soon be announcing e-commerce programs akin to Adsense, in which retailers will register with "app stores" to allow physical goods and services to be bought as easily as apps. We can also expect announcements of partnerships between phone providers and Amazon or Wal-Mart or other big retailers who can fulfill e-commerce requests from the phone. I have no inside information to support this contention, just the logic of the marketplace.

    Interestingly enough, it was only a few days after I had this thought that I met with the folks at Siri, which bills itself as "Your virtual personal assistant." Siri does pretty much what I was imagining for Google or Apple: it searches, and then does something. In our conversation, one of the founders referred to it as a "do engine" rather than a search engine. Right now, Siri mainly interfaces with services that provide APIs for reservations, like OpenTable or TicketMaster. It isn't a general purpose e-commerce engine. But that is clearly in the future, if not from Siri, then from some other startup, and then, inevitably, from the big guys.

    E-commerce is the killer app of the phone world. Anyone whose business is now based on advertising had better be prepared to link payment and fulfillment directly to search, making buying anything in the world into a one-click purchase. Real time payment from the phone is in your future.

    A Dream About Augmented Reality Fiction

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2010-02-14

    Last night I dreamed that one of my authors (no name or face that I can recall - one of the phantasms created by the half-waking imagination) had sold me rights to a novel he'd written, and was eager for me to publish it as an ebook. It turned out that the "ebook" we were developing was actually a movie that took place in an augmented reality overlay projected directly onto the mind's eye, mixing what the author had imagined with what the viewer was actually seeing and experiencing at the time. Every version of the movie was different, because the story had to be overlaid on what the viewer was encountering in the real world. At one point in the dream, Eric Schmidt of Google was particularly excited because a sailing scene in the story warned him about a hidden reef that his boat had to avoid.

    I don't often share dreams on this blog (at least not sleeping dreams), but this one seemed worth putting out there, because I do think that augmented reality could be an important component of a new kind of storytelling, making today's 3D entertainments as dated as silent films. Elan Lee's Fourth Wall Studios is already chipping away at the barrier between storytelling and daily life. The first augmented reality entertainments may be text based rather than video; eventually, though, they will likely be as immersive as my dream.

    Many years ago, I saw a play in LA called Tamara, a story set in the mansion where WWI hero and author Gabrielle D'Annunzio was held under house arrest by Mussolini. A fascinating experiment in theater, Tamara took place in many different rooms of the house. As an audience member, whenever a scene ended, you had an opportunity to follow the character of your choice to another room. No audience member could see the entire play. My wife and I went with her parents (who were back for the third or fourth time, seeing parts of the play they'd missed on previous visits), and afterwards, we all compared notes for hours about what we'd seen, and what we'd missed.

    street view on the phone I share this dream as a reminder that the fiction and entertainments of the future may have a very different form than the fiction of today. The first metamorphosis is just to change the medium, in the way that the paper map or atlas morphed first into online mapping sites. But eventually, we'll get much deeper, as mapping is today morphing into augmented reality layers (from Yelp reviews or Foursquare check-ins to Google Street View) superimposed on walking or driving directions delivered on a phone.

    This is the kind of world we're exploring at the Where 2.0 Conference next month. I don't believe there are any talks on augmented reality fiction (@brady, correct me if I'm wrong), but there might as well be. The world we're entering is going to be as rich and strange as last night's dream.

    Google Buzz re-invents Gmail (Google Buzz 重新发明 Gmail)

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2010-02-09

    When I first heard about Google Buzz, I was worried that I might be seeing the birth of another "me too" product. After all, everyone wants a piece of the Twitter halo. But with the release of Buzz today, you can see how Google has taken the social media lessons of Twitter and applied them to their own core products.

    I'm especially fond of Gmail Buzz, which adds the power of asymmetric following to email.

    AWESOME idea. There are many of us for whom email is still our core information console, and our most powerful and reliable vehicle for sharing ideas, links, pictures, and conversations with the people who constitute our real social network. But up till now, we could only share with explicitly specified individuals or groups. Now, we can post messages to be read by anyone. Sergey Brin said that Buzz gives the ability "to post a message without a 'to' line." That's exactly right - something that in retrospect is so brilliantly obvious that it will soon no doubt be emulated by every other cloud-based email system.

    Buzz items can be shared directly in Gmail, but are also pulled in from other social sharing sites, including Twitter, Picasa, YouTube, and Flickr.

    What's particularly cool is that the people you "follow" are auto-generated for you out of your email-based social network. If you communicate with them, they are the seed for your buzz cloud. Over time, as you like or dislike buzz entries from that network, the buzz cloud adapts.

    Google has also done a neat hack on the Twitter @name syntax, allowing you to prefix @ to an email address to have a message show up for sure in that user's Gmail Inbox. Saying @foo@gmail.com (or @foo@bar.com) will put a message into foo's Buzz cloud in the same way as saying @foo does on Twitter, but it will also show up in their Gmail Inbox, to make sure they see it. You can also make messages private to only named recipients or groups. (I love this - right now, I have two Twitter accounts, one for public sharing, and another for private sharing.)

    I've always found it perplexing that vendors who manage pieces of our communications network for us - our email, IM, and phone - have failed to build social networking features into their products. Google is clearly now tackling that job, increasingly making its communication products into a powerful social media platform. Gmail already includes IM and some automatic social learning in the address book; adding Buzz makes it that much more powerful. And the fact that whatever you buzz is added to your Google profile (and immediately picked up in Google search) will turn those seemingly vestigial Google profiles into something that might just become the next generation personal home page.

    You can begin to see where all this is going: the integration of Gmail, Buzz, Reader, Voice, Geo, Blogger, YouTube, Calendar, Contacts... Buzz is a game-changing first step, but when you think about where Google will take this over the next year it gets exciting...

    There's a real lesson here for anyone who wants to enter a crowded market: play to your strengths. Think through what job that hot new startup does for its users. Don't copy what they look like. Apply what they've taught you to your own business.

    There are real benefits to using email as a social media platform. Just about everyone knows how to use it. (Despite claims that young millenials look down on email, it's just too useful to go away anytime soon.) It's incredibly flexible - you can share anything you want, and comment on it at any length, from 140 characters to as many as it takes to get your point across. It has a global address space that allows you to find almost anyone, an address space that links people to content. It's multi-platform, and accessible from anywhere.

    In some ways, Gmail Buzz brings many of the benefits of Google Wave to Gmail. Every Buzz item can be turned into a conversation (much as in Wave or Friendfeed.) People can comment on your Buzz, comment on your comments, or @ reply you. Sure, it lacks the hyper-cool wiki-style shared editing features (though those perhaps could be added in a future release), but it also lacks the critical flaw that made Wave into more of a "concept car" than a real product: I don't have to adopt a new tool or build a new social network. It just adds rich new capabilities into the tool and network that I already use.

    Google has also done a terrific job of giving inline preview to links you share. This is especially awesome for photos and videos. The inline slideshows are terrific - actually better than you get in most native photo or video sharing apps. And I love that you can share a Flickr link as easily as you can share one from Picasa (bucking the trend of vendors to try to lock you in to their own services.) Google says it's committed to Buzz being "the poster child for what it means to build an open, standards-compliant social product that serves the interests of users..." I'm looking forward to seeing more signs of this commitment as Buzz (and other Google products) evolve.

    You can read more about the functionality behind Buzz at O'Reilly Answers: "Google Buzz: 5 Things You Need to Know."

    P.S. There's also a great, related Buzz announcement for Mobile, which shows off Google's platform thinking. On the mobile phone, Buzz is automatically "snapped" to your location, also using metrics like time of day to figure out the most relevant location (e.g. during the day you might be at Google, but if it's nighttime, it may be more likely that you're at the Shoreline Amphitheater across the street.) Buzz related to a location will show up on the relevant Google Placepage, and in a new geotagged Buzz layer on Google Maps. What we're seeing is the application of algorithmic relevance to buzz - and the power of what I've long been calling "the internet operating system."

    P.P.S. Buzz will be rolled out starting at 11 pm today. Apparently, it will take 2-3 days to show up in every Gmail account; if you don't have it right away, be patient.

    @Logoutx翻译

    当我第一次听说 Google Buzz 的时候,曾担心这将是又一个模仿产品。毕竟人人都想分 Twitter 的一杯羹。但通过刚发布的 Buzz,你可以看到 Google 已经汲取了 Twitter 的社交媒体经验,并用在自己的核心产品上。

    我非常喜欢 Gmail Buzz,它为电子邮件增加了非对称 follow 的能力。

    这是个很棒的点子。电子邮件仍是很多人的核心信息平台,是我们用来分享点子、链接、图片以及与真实社交网络中的成员进行交谈的最强大而可靠的载具。但以前我们只能与具体的个人或团体进行分享。现在我们可以发布可供任何人阅读的信息。 Sergey Brin 说 Buzz 赋予了“无需填收件人就能发布信息”的能力。这话非常准确——回头再看这简直是理所当然的事,其它云端 email 系统也会进行模仿。

    你可以直接在 Gmail 分享 Buzz 信息,也可以把其它社交分享站点上的内容拖下来,包括 Twitter、Picasa、YouTube 和 Flickr。

    特别酷的是你 follow 的人自动在邮件以外的社交网络生成。如果你和他们通信,他们就会成为你的 Buzz 云的种子。不论你喜不喜欢来自那个网络的 Buzz 项目,Buzz 云已经适应了它。

    Google 还很妙地借用了 Twitter 的“@名”语法,你为电子邮件地址加上 @ 前缀就能把消息发到该用户的 Gmail 收件箱。比如说 @foo@gmail.com(或者 @foo@bar.com)会把信息送进 foo 的 Buzz 云里,就像你在 Twitter 里说 @foo 一样,但信息还会出现在 foo 的收件箱里,确保能被对方看见。你还可以让信息仅为特定的收件人或群组可见(我很喜欢这功能,我在 Twitter 上就有两个帐号,一个用于公开分享,另一个用于私下分享)。

    一直很让我费解的是,设备厂商管理着我们通信网络中的每个部分(电子邮件、即时消息、手机),却没能在自己的产品里构建社交网络功能。Google 现在显然是要干这事,持续将自己的通信产品融入强大的社交媒体平台。Gmail 已经内置了即时消息 Gtalk,地址簿里也有一些自动社交化学习功能,增加 Buzz 更让它威力倍增。而 Buzz 为 Google Profile 新增的各种内容很可能将会把今天这个残缺的 Google Profile 变成下一代个人主页。

    你已经可以一窥全貌:Gmail 整合、Buzz、Reader、Voice、Geo、Blogger、YouTube、Calendar、Contacts……Buzz 是改变规则的第一步,Google 明年的可能动向更让人激动……

    这对任何一个想挤进拥挤的市场的人而言都是重要的一课——结合你的强项。认真想想那个热火朝天的新创公司到底为它的用户做了什么,而不是去抄袭它的表面,把学到的东西用在你自己的生意中去。

    把电子邮件作为社交媒体平台有很多好处。几乎人人都知道怎么用(不管那些小年轻们怎么看不起电子邮件,电子邮件的实用性确保它不可能在短时间内被替代);电子邮件极为灵活——你可以分享任何东西、评论长度任意,说到清楚为止;电子邮件有全球唯一的地址,让你可以找到几乎任何人,通过一个地址连接人和内容;电子邮件跨平台,可以从任何地方访问。

    在某些方面,Gmail Buzz 把 Google Wave 的很多优点带给了 Gmail。每个 Buzz 都可以变成一个对话(就像 Wave 或 Friendfeed 里那样),人们可以在你的 Buzz 上进行评论,在你的评论上进行评论或者用 @ 回复你。没错,它缺少超酷的 wiki 风格编辑功能(不过新版本可能加入),但它也没有让 Wave 沦为“概念产品”的关键问题——我不再需要用新工具或者打造新的社交网络。它只是为我已经在用的工具和网络增加了更丰富的功能。

    Google 为分享出来的链接提供了出色的内嵌预览。特别是照片和视频,内嵌幻灯显示效果棒极了,比绝大多数原生照片或视频分享应用更棒。你可以像分享 Picasa 链接那样便利地分享 Flickr 链接(这就打破了厂商为把你锁在自家服务而构筑的壁垒)。Google 承诺自己将让 Buzz 成为“一个榜样,代表着如何构筑一个开放的、适应多标准、顺应用户利益的社交产品……”。我期待着看到这个承诺随 Buzz 的进化而实现。

    更多 Buzz 背后的功能请看 O'Reilly Answers: “Google Buzz: 5 Things You Need to Know.”

    P.S. 移动方面也有一个关于 Buzz 的好消息,显示出 Google 的平台思维。在手机上,Buzz 自动“捕获”你的位置,并通过当前时间之类的信息找出最可能的位置(比如白天你可能会在 Google 总部,但晚上的话你更可能在它对面的 Shoreline 剧院)。Buzz 找到的地点会出现在相应的 Google Placepage 和 Google Map 的 Buzz 图层里面。我们从中看到了 Buzz 相关的算法应用,以及“互联网操作系统”的威力。

    Ignite, Syndicated Events, and Social Media Marketing

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2010-02-09

    As we approach Global Ignite Week, a collection of Ignite events around the world during the first week of March, I can't help but think about the future of conferences, one of O'Reilly's major businesses. Here are some of the things we're learning from Ignite.

    1. People love the rapid-fire format. Steven Levy once said that Foo Camp is the wiki of conferences, an unstructured space where the attendees make things happen. Well, by that measure, Ignite is the Twitter of conferences, a way to quickly share information and spark enthusiasm. The Ignite slogan: "Enlighten us, but make it quick." is a great way to force speakers to focus on the essentials. It's amazing how much you can pack into five minutes when you're on the clock.

      We're increasingly using the Ignite format at our traditional conferences as a way to highlight lots of great ideas that people can dig down into later. We've had 5 minute "Lightning Talks" at the Open Source Convention since 2003, but Ignite has a social environment halfway between structured sessions on stage and the "hallway track" that is so exciting at many conferences. As a result we're now holding Ignites in conjunction with many of our conferences, both as part of the program and as a social event in addition to the regular conference content. We've also organized Ignites at other events, such as Google I/O and Adobe Max, and upcoming at SMX West.

    2. Self-organization enables amazing scale. Since Brady Forrest and Bre Pettis launched the first Ignite event in Seattle in December 2006, there have been over 180 Ignites held around the world, with over 80 of those held in the past six months. Each Ignite has the same format: an evening event, often in a bar or other informal meeting place, starting out with a Make: contest, followed by a series of short talks, with 10-15 speakers given five minutes to speak on the subject of their choice, each with 20 slides auto-advancing every 15 seconds. Organizers invite speakers and, like any event organizer, pick people who will engage the audience. Events usually draw at least 100 attendees, and the largest Ignite to date has had 800 attendees. 2-300 is the average.

      We learned a lesson when Foo Camp led to Bar Camp, and hundreds of other "camps" (City Camp and Crisis Camp being two fabulous recent incarnations), and so, with Ignite, we set out from the first to make it a self-organized event, providing instructions and a mailing list for Ignite organizers.

    3. Syndication allows a decentralized event to gain some of the benefits of aggregation. Accordingly, we provide a central calendar listing of upcoming events, a video portal, and other opportunities for organizers and participants to share what happens at their local event.

      We're working to develop additional mechanisms to support local Ignites, including social networking tools, and a much improved video portal (to be released in time for Global Ignite Week). Each Ignite provides its own factory for innovation, so we're looking for the best ideas from local organizers and working to spread them more widely.

      We're particularly interested in developing mechanisms for syndicated sponsorship. Up till now, there has been some local sponsorship of Ignite events. Local sponsors might provide beer in exchange for a banner, or give away product from the stage. Ignite Portland began showing short sponsor videos during the socializing breaks. Here's an example:

      With Global Ignite Week, we realized that we've reached the scale where we can engage major sponsors. Global Ignite Week will have the reach of a large trade show, with 15-20,000 participants. Across all Ignite events this year, there may well be significantly more than 50,000 participants.

      We've come up with a sponsorship model in which major sponsors can contribute a video to be shown across all participating events. If sponsors understand the format and deliver entertaining, informative video rather than traditional marketing spam, this can be a huge opportunity to engage passionate, interesting (and often highly technical) audiences. (In the future, we hope to have these video sponsorships in the form of actual syndicated Ignite sessions.)

      There's a particularly interesting aspect to Ignite that we've come to realize. It's a social event, and so sponsorship at Ignite is fundamentally social media marketing. In addition to the people who attend each Ignite event, millions more are exposed to the event via Twitter and Facebook. We've been working with PeopleBrowsr Analytics and O'Reilly Research to understand the social media impact of Ignite events.

      We compared the tweet count and reach from the Web 2.0 Expo NY and Web 2.0 Summit events last fall with the tweet count and reach from the Ignite events happening in the same timeframe. (For purposes of comparison, we decided to use a date range from 10 days before the Web 2.0 Expo till 20 days after the Web 2.0 Summit.) For the Web 2.0 Expo, we counted tweets using the #w2e and #w2expo hashtags; for the Web 2.0 Summit, we counted tweets using #w2s and #web2summit; for the various Ignite events, we counted tweets using either #ignite and the individual hashtags recommended by the organizers of the Ignite events held between 12 October to 24 November. As you can see from the figure below, the Web 2.0 events each generated a huge, concentrated spike, while the Ignite events provided a repetitive series of spikes, each much smaller, but important in the aggregate.

      Web2vsIgnite.png

      The Web 2.0 Summit generated 8,723 tweets from 2,356 individual users with a combined reach (aggregate of all followers of unique tweeters using one or more of the hashtags) of over 11 million, with 74 million potential tweet impressions (aggregate of all tweets seen by all followers.) The Web 2.0 Expo NY generated 11,950 tweets from 2,953 users with a combined reach of 6.4 million and nearly 42 million potential tweet impressions. Meanwhile, the 26 Ignite events held around the world during October and November generated 8,026 tweets from 2,585 with a combined reach of 3.5 million and over 11 million potential tweet impressions.

      Clearly, the numbers were stronger for the traditional events - especially the Web 2.0 Summit, whose tweeters included a much higher proportion of "influentials" with high follower counts. But the Ignite movement is gaining steam. While the numbers for the sample period were smaller than those for the traditional events, when you use the Ignite data to project the expected tweet count from Global Ignite Week, the numbers are quite comparable. The sample period included 26 Ignite events spread over two months, and a total of perhaps 6000 participants. With more than 79 events currently scheduled (and perhaps as many as a hundred, as more are added each day) over a period of a week, Global Ignite Week (#giw) should generate more than 3 times the attendance and the tweet traffic that we saw during the sample period - as many as 25,000 tweets with a combined reach of 10 million followers and 35 million potential tweet impressions. Over the course of a year, several hundred Ignite events will have an attendance and a social media impact that exceeds that of even large traditional events.

      We're still working out how to manage the syndicated sponsorship opportunity. Challenges include finding sponsors (prospectus pdf here) who understand the opportunity, making sure that those sponsors understand the Ignite culture and provide valuable content, developing mechanisms for sharing sponsorship benefits with local organizers (for example, we're talking with Facebook about providing in-kind advertising that organizers can use to bring attendees to their events), and working to understand the demographics and interests of the attendees. With tools like PeopleBrowsr analytics, it's increasingly possible to measure these things (and much more, including attendee sentiment) via the twitter "data exhaust."

      There's an important twist to this story. A recent study showed that 70% of companies plan to spend more on Twitter & Facebook marketing rather than traditional marketing channels. Given the new social media marketing disclosure rules put forward by the Federal Trade Commission, you've either got to do explicit ads, or sponsor content that will spread on its own. Ignite is a great way to do social media marketing right.

    There's a nifty Bing map from Global Ignite sponsor Microsoft that makes it easy to find an Ignite near you. Click on the heading of the map below to see a larger version that lists all the Ignite locations alphabetically beside the map. Click to use the larger version.

    A Few Thoughts on the Nexus One(Nexus One的几点思考)

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2010-01-05

    There will be many posts focusing on the look, feel, and features of the Nexus One, so I'm going to focus on what Android's latest incarnation says about the competitive landscape - what I've elsewhere called the war for the web. Android vs. iPhone is one important front in that "war."

    nexusone.jpgNews from the front: a possible turning point for Android. I've been a huge iPhone fan, but after using the Nexus One for a few weeks, I find so much to like that I'm close to the point where Android might be my first choice. While I may yet go back to my iPhone, I'm conflicted.

    The key to the turning point is not how slick the phone is - even though it's thin, fast, bright, and beautiful, with amazing sensor-based capabilities including noise-canceling headphones, automated brightness adjustment based on external light levels, voice-activated search, navigation and data-entry, different "home" screens based on whether it's in your pocket or sitting in car-dock. Nor is it the fact that you can buy unlocked phones without any plan directly from Google, or that you will soon be able to choose plans from Verizon and Vodaphone as well as T-Mobile. The real turning point is Google's commitment to making the Nexus One a web-native device. As Google VP of Product Management Mario Queiroz said in today's press conference, a nexus is a place where multiple worlds meet. "The Nexus One is where the phone meets the web." It's a connected device in a way that is more fundamental than any previous phone.

    The biggest pluses of the Nexus One are all around the simplicity and completeness of the cloud integration:

    • The Android Market rocks. It's a "one click" experience compared to the iPhone App Store. Find the app, add it directly to the phone. No separate syncing step. And there's more than enough choice there, with more apps being added every day. I found myself having much more fun exploring and adding new apps than I ever had on the iPhone. Payment is also easy - I have a feeling that the Android Market is going to be a major driver for Google Checkout, growing its base and making it a real contender as a first class internet payment system. Not to mention that you buy the phone itself online using Google Checkout.

      I'm delighted by the useful security warnings (now, that's unusual!) that show what system features each app you download will have access to. I also love that the Market shows you how many times the app has been installed, so you can immediately see how popular it is.

    • Gmail is so good on the phone that I can, for the first time, imagine being totally without my laptop.
    • No need to sync address book and calendar. Everything's always up to date.
    • Multi-tasking makes the phone feel much more like a real computer.
    • Maps and turn by turn navigation are great, although the speaking voice of the turn by turn is just awful.
    • In Android 2.1, Google has speech-enabled every text field on the phone, not just search and navigation. Frankly, speech recognition still doesn't work as well as I would hope, but as I've written previously, when speech recognition isn't happening on the device, but in the cloud, it gets better the more people use it.
    • Google Goggles is still a bit rough, but really promising. I understand why it's not pre-loaded on the phone, but think it has real promise as a must-have app, and one that plays to Google's strengths. I believe that image recognition and speech recognition are key to future UI improvements in mobile devices, and I applaud Google's long term commitment to these areas, even though they aren't yet fully baked. And the awe factor when you see someone point a camera at you and have the app say "That's Tim O'Reilly" tells you just how much more a device can do when it is backed by big data and powerful algorithms running on a cloud platform. (Google has kept face recognition out of the production version of Goggles, but I had a full version demoed to me a few months ago, and it was truly a taste of the future.) Augmented reality is coming to the iPhone as well (Layar, the Yelp Monocle, and ShopSavvy being only a few examples), but this is Google's home turf.
    The biggest minuses (as might be expected) are around UI:
    • The iPhone was always intuitive for me. The gPhone is definitely a learning experience. But the more familiar I get with it, the happier I am, unlike some devices where you never get over the hurdle, and never feel comfortable or effective.
    • Visual Voicemail is a killer app on the iPhone. Going back to having to dial a number to hear voicemail just seems so wrong. I'm assuming that this is our wonderful patent system at work, as otherwise, it's hard to imagine that Google wouldn't be copying this feature.
    • It's hard to make a single-touch UI that's as simple and useful as a multi-touch UI. I know multi-touch is coming for Android, but not having it now is a big miss. I love the experience of zooming on the iPhone with a pinch. What's more, the sensitivity of the touch screen on the Nexus One leaves a lot to be desired. Dragging seems to work fine, but some of the button presses aren't recognized unless you press really hard.
    • The notification trackball is a nice idea, but I don't think it really adds much to my experience. In fact, there are so many applications that send notifications that if the light is enabled, it's constantly flashing. Future applications may learn better how to use color in notifications.
    • I really miss access to my iTunes music collection, which is also where I listen to audiobooks from audible.com. That being said, this omission pushes me back in the direction of cloud music apps like Last.FM and Pandora, though I'm wishing that Rhapsody was available, since I'm already a subscriber via my Sonos home music system. Google has added its own built-in music app, but it has a limited selection, and what's worse, pre-empts the controls on the headset. At least right now, they aren't available to other music applications - pressing the pause button while in Last.FM just starts a competing stream from the Google music app. Unless Google is REALLY serious about getting into the music business, they should give up on their own app and work with third parties to fill this hole.
    • Google hasn't done as good a job as I would have expected of integrating photos and videos with Picasa and YouTube. While Google claims one-click YouTube upload, it wasn't immediately obvious to me. In any event, there's a potential liability in Google's tie to its own services. For example, I'd love to be able to auto-sync my photos to Flickr rather than Picasa - it will be interesting to see if Google's definition of open extends to the choice of competing cloud services, or if they will use the device to tie people ever more closely to their own services.
    • The lack of some simple features, like the ability to take screenshots, is also annoying. Heck, even to install third-party screenshot apps, you need to root your phone.
    Overall, the phone is good enough that it's conceivable in a way that it wasn't a few months ago that we'll see a replay of Apple's experience in the PC market twenty-five years ago, in which Apple's fit and finish was unquestionably superior, but a commodity platform that was "good enough" and available to the entire industry ended up taking the lead.

    (Henry Blodget makes this case in Hey, Apple, Wake Up -- It's Happening Again. On the other hand, Mark Sigal raises a different historical analogy, Novell vs. Microsoft, asking whether Google's release of its own anointed phone might end up blunting adoption by other vendors, while Google takes the eye of its core business. A lot depends on whether Google holds back anything from the platform available to others. At today's press conference, Google emphasized the open platform aspect of Android, so they are trying to address that fear. The model seems to be to work with individual partners to push the ball forward, but to return those innovations to the pool available to all partners.)

    Overall, though, it seems to me that Google's experience in delivering cloud-based data-driven applications is aligned with long-term trends in a way that Apple's device-bound heritage is not. Apple is playing catch-up in cloud infrastructure, building its own location services, for instance, but iTunes and the App Store excepted, Apple's cloud experience is limited, especially in the area of algorithmically driven applications, which I believe is so central to the future of computing. Meanwhile, Google has so many data assets, and so much experience in algorithmic applications, that it may be difficult for Apple to compete in the long term.

    There's also the matter of cloud-native "killer apps." Apple's email, calendar, and address book show their PC-era roots. They live on the PC and must be synced to the phone. Google's web-native equivalents are always up to date, with syncing happening in real time.

    In Apple's favor: software and design patents, which hold the competition at bay in a way that they didn't in the 1980s. Also in Apple's favor, its own killer apps, like iTunes, which is still the gold standard in music, but also the hub for podcasts, audiobooks, and ebooks. Audiobooks and ebooks might make it into the Android Market, but it's hard to imagine the Market becoming the same kind of content hub that iTunes has become.

    Also in Apple's favor: Google must make some of its key assets available on the iPhone or cede the real estate to competitors. It would be a major blow, for example, if Bing search or Maps were the default on the iPhone instead of Google. It's easy to imagine an Apple-Microsoft alliance in areas like search, location services, speech recognition, image recognition, and other cutting edge areas that will be a key part of Google's competitive advantage in the future.

    Meanwhile, there are key third party apps that can make or break either platform - perhaps not quite as essential as in the days when Adobe's commitment to the Mac before Windows helped give Apple an insuperable lead in the design market, but still significant.

    Google needs to aggressively map out a partner ecosystem in areas like music, ebooks, and the like, to make sure that they have a compelling offering to match what's already available on the iPhone.

    Meanwhile, Apple needs to either beef up its capability in the kinds of data-backed applications, or partner aggressively with companies with more expertise than they currently have. They also need to re-factor their core applications like iPhoto and iMovie to make them web-native, turning them into a base for collective intelligence. Picasa and iPhoto both sport image recognition, but Apple has to train its algorithms on sample data sets, while Google gets to train Picasa on billions of user images. As Peter Norvig, Google's chief scientist, once said to me, "We don't have better algorithms. We just have more data." Collective intelligence is the secret sauce of Web 2.0, and the future of all computing, and by locking user data into individual devices, Apple cuts itself off from this future. Rather than having MobileMe as a separate revenue add-on, Apple needs to make all of its applications web-connected by default, so that they can learn from all their users.

    What we see then is a collision of paradigms, perhaps as profound as the transition between the character-based era of computing and the GUI based era of the Mac and Windows. We're moving from the era in which the device is primary and the web is an add-on, to the era in which a device and its applications are fundamentally dependent on the internet operating system that provides location, speech recognition, image recognition, social network awareness, and other fundamental data services.

    We're in for an interesting ride.

    翻译:Logout,校:Echokou

    很多评论都已经将重点集中在 Nexus One 的观感、触感、功能之上,所以我打算重点关注竞争前景——我之前说的网络之战(the war for the web)。Android VS iPhone 是这场战争的一条重要战线。

    前线报道:这可能是 Android 的一个转折点。我是 iPhone 的重度支持者,但用了几周 Nexus One 之后我找到了自己喜欢的很多东西,我觉得 Android 已经快成为我的首选了。是不是要用回 iPhone 让我很纠结。

    转折点的关键不在于 Nexus One 是否华美——尽管它的确是又薄、又快、又绚丽,支持各种传感器支持的功能(包括降噪听筒、自动亮度调节、语音搜索/导航/录入、手持/车载双模式桌面);也不是你可以通过 Google 直接购买无锁版手机,或者选择Verizon 和 Vodafone以及 T-Mobile的补贴销售方案。转折点的关键在于 Google 让 Nexus One 成为了一个真正生于网络的产品。就像 Google 产品管理副总裁 Mario Queiroz 在发布会上所说的,Nexus 是多个世界汇集的地方:“Nexus One 就是手机与网络的碰面”。Nexus One 的网络比此前任何一款手机都更基础化。

    Nexus One 的主要优点集中在云端整合的简洁和完整性上:

    • Android Market 很出色,提供了一键式体验和无缝整合:直接下载到手机,无需单独同步。软件数量增长很快,选择也很充足。我发现自己现在比用 iPhone 的时候更喜欢探索程序。支付也很便捷——我相信 Android Market 将会成为 Google Checkout 的主要驱动力,会扩展其用户基础使之成为一线互联网支付系统。更不要说你可以直接用 Google Checkout 买到 Nexus One。我很喜欢Android Market上的安全警告功能(很不同凡响),它会告诉你正在下载的应用会访问哪些系统功能。我还喜欢Market会告诉你这个应用被安装了多少次,你可以籍此马上了解到该应用的流行程度。
    • Gmail 在 Nexus One 上的表现非常出色,我头一次觉得自己可以完全抛开笔记本电脑了。
    • 不再需要定时同步地址簿和日程,一切实时更新。
    • 多任务让 Nexus One 感觉起来更像是真正的电脑。
    • 地图和语音导航棒极了,不过语音听起来很糟糕。
    • Android 2.1 在任何文本框都可以进行语音输入。实话说,它的表现没有达到我的预期。不过就像我之前提到的,只要语音识别不被孤立在单个设备上,而是放在云端,随着用户数量的增长,它的表现会越来越好。
    • Google Goggles 还有点粗糙,但前景非常好。我理解它为什么没有被预装在手机上,但还是认为它将成为一个必备程序,一个依附 Google 强大实力的应用。我相信图像识别和语音识别将是移动产品未来,UI 进化的关键。虽然这些应用尚不成熟,但我还是想向 Google 在这些领域所做的长期努力致敬。想想哪天有人用镜头对着我,程序自动提示“他是 Tim O'Reilly”。这就是一款移动设备在云端庞大的数据和强大的算法支持下所能实现的功能。(Google 在公开版 Goggles 里去除了人脸识别,但我在几个月前收到了完整的测试版,前景非常好)。iPhone 已经有了增强显示应用(Augmented reality,比如 LayarYelp MonocleShopSavvy),但这是 Google 的主场。

    缺点主要集中在 UI:

    • iPhone 对我来说总是很直觉,gPhone 则需要花时间学习。不过慢慢熟悉以后Android 会变得越来越顺手。不像有些产品,你总是用不顺,永远也不会让你觉得舒适和高效。
    • 可视化语音邮件是 iPhone 的杀手级应用,现在回到打电话听语音邮件很不舒服。我相信这是我们伟大的版权系统在作祟,不然 Google 肯定会复制这项功能。
    • 缺乏多点触摸的 UI 很难做到足够易用。我知道 Android 在未来会全面支持多点触摸,但现在没有就是很大的败笔。我很喜欢 iPhone 的缩放体验。而且 Nexus One 敏感的触屏带来更多触摸的冲动。拖放操作很正常,但有些按钮需要用力按才能被识别。
    • 带通知功能的轨迹球是个好点子,但它没有给我的体验带来多少帮助。主要是有太多的程序在发送通知,轨迹球一直闪个不停。开发者最好能学会使用不同的颜色发送通知。
    • 我想念自己的 iTunes 音乐库,audible.com 的语音书也放在那儿。话虽如此,但这个缺憾把我推向了 Last.FM 和 Pandora 这类云端音乐应用。如果 Rhapsody 也能用就更好了,我已经在 Sonos 家庭音乐系统上订阅了它。Google 内置了自己的在线音乐程序,但选择很少,更糟的是它现在强占了耳机线控——听 Last.FM 时按暂停键的结果是 Google 音乐程序开始播放自己的音乐。除非 Google 非常认真地想要进军音乐市场,他们应该放弃自己的程序让第三方来实现。
    • Google 通过 Picasa 和 Youtube 整合照片、视频的工作不如人意。尽管 Google 宣称提供了一键式 Youtube 上传,但在我看来它并不是即时进行的。而且 Google 绑定自己的服务有潜在的问题,比如我就更希望照片能和 Flickr 自动同步而不是 Picasa。我们拭目以待,看看到底是Google所谓的开放能够包容竞争对手的云计算服务?还是通过Android设备把用户更紧密地拴在自己的服务上。
    • 一些基本功能的确是很恼人,比如截屏。想用第三方截屏软件都必须获取 Root 权限

    总体来说,Nexus One“足够好用”,这是几个月前的 Android 手机所做不到的。我们将会看到 25 年前 Apple VS PC 之战的重现。和当年一样,Apple 的产品无疑远更合用而精整,但“足够好用”而且对整个业界开放的商用平台最终将会取得领先地位。

    (Henry Blodget在“Hey, Apple, Wake Up -- It's Happening Again(嘿,Apple快醒醒,又来了)”中谈到了这种情况。另一方面Mark Sigal提出了一个不同的历史类比,Novell vs. Microsoft,质疑Google发布自己的终极手机是会否会扼杀其他采用Android平台的合作伙伴。这很大程度上取决于Google是否对合作化有所保留。从今天的新闻发布会来看Google强调Android平台的开放性,看来他们希望消除这些担忧。现在的情形似乎是通过和个别伙伴的合作推动事情的发展,然后将这些创新带回给所有合作伙伴。)

    在我看来,Google 在提供基于云端、数据驱动的应用方面符合长期发展趋势,而 Apple 的设备绑定则不是。Apple 在云端基础设施方面是追赶者,比如他们正在打造自己的地点位置服务。但 iTunes 和 App Store 例外,Apple 在云端的经验很有限,特别是在算法取向的应用方面,而我认为这正是未来计算的核心。相对应的是 Google 有如此庞大的数据资产,在算法取向应用方面的经验非常丰富,这让 Apple 在长期竞争中处于不利地位。

    生于云端的“杀手级应用”也很重要。Apple 的邮件、日程、地址簿都显示出 PC 时代的血脉,本质上是 PC 同步到手机。而 Google 的对应产品生于网络,总是实时同步。

    Apple 的优势:软件和设计专利,这些优势是他们在 80 年代所没有的。此外他们还有自己的杀手级应用,比如 iTunes 仍然是音乐应用的标杆,而且还是 podcast、语音书、电子书的中转站。语音书和电子书也许会来到 Android Market,但很难想象 Android Market 会成为 iTunes 这样的中转站。

    Apple 的另一个优势:Google 必须对 iPhone 开放自己的很多核心资产,否则就会将市场拱手让于竞争者。这是一个致命的问题,试想一下 Bing 的搜索和地图取代 Google 成为 iPhone 的默认应用。Apple 和微软在搜索、位置服务、语音识别、图像识别等其它 Google 占据优势的尖端领域达成联盟并不是什么难以想象的事情。

    与此同时,重要的第三方应用也可能为这两个平台带来巨变,或许不像 Adobe 为 Mac 在设计市场赢得不可逾越的优势那么显著,但仍然会带来重大影响。

    Google 需要积极地在音乐、电子书等领域筹建合作伙伴生态圈,确保提供一个能和今天的 iPhone 相匹敌的生态圈。

    与此同时,Apple 需要增强自己在数据取向应用方面的能力,或者和其它在这方面经验丰富的公司展开积极合作。他们还需要重新设计 iPhoto、iMovie 等核心程序,让它们变得网络化,成为集体人工智能(collective intelligence)的基础。Picasa 和 iPhoto 都支持图像识别,区别在于 Apple 培育自己的样本数据集算法,而 Google 则可以根据数十亿用户的图片锤炼 Picasa。就像 Google 首席科学家 Peter Norvig 上次跟我说的:“我们没有更好的算法,我们只是有更多的数据”。集体人工智能是 Web 2.0 的秘方,是所有计算的未来。Apple 现在还把所有用户数据锁在各自设备里,这种做法在自己和未来之间砌了堵墙。MobileMe 现在是个独立的收费附件,Apple 需要让自己所有的应用默认网络化,这样才能向所有用户学习。

    我们将会看到算法的碰撞,或许就像当年字符界面计算 VS 图形用户界面一样影响深远。我们正从设备为主、网络为附加的时代走进设备和程序从根本上依赖网络操作系统提供位置信息、语音识别、图像识别、社交网络等基础数据服务的时代。

    我们正处在一个有趣的变革之中。

    Commerce and the Wealth of Nations

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2009-12-31

    I was struck the other day by an article in the New York Times that describes the different approaches of the US and China to Afghanistan, in which the US shoulders the burden of war, while China reaps the benefits of commerce. Quoting from the article, I tweeted: "American troops help make Afghanistan safe for Chinese commerce."

    In response, @kamalram wrote: "During WW1 and the early days of WW2, the United States focused on commerce when much of Europe was at war. History gets repeatd"

    Pundits have long proclaimed the 21st century "the Chinese century", and @kamalram may well be right that America's wars against terrorism are a turning point. But the lesson is broader than that China is securing rights to rare-earth minerals in Afghanistan while the US gets mired in a messy war. The question is who creates the industries of the 21st century, which system of government is best at encouraging innovation, and which citizens have the drive to tackle hard problems and turn them into great opportunities.

    This line of thought in turn put me in mind of Thomas Friedman's recent column, Off to the races, in which he argued:

    I’ve long believed there are two basic strategies for dealing with climate change — the “Earth Day” strategy and the “Earth Race” strategy. This Copenhagen climate summit was based on the Earth Day strategy. It was not very impressive. This conference produced a series of limited, conditional, messy compromises, which it is not at all clear will get us any closer to mitigating climate change at the speed and scale we need....

    I am an Earth Race guy. I believe that averting catastrophic climate change is a huge scale issue. The only engine big enough to impact Mother Nature is Father Greed: the Market. Only a market, shaped by regulations and incentives to stimulate massive innovation in clean, emission-free power sources can make a dent in global warming. And no market can do that better than America’s....

    In the cold war, we had the space race: who could be the first to put a man on the moon. Only two countries competed, and there could be only one winner. Today, we need the Earth Race....

    Whether you're a "warmist" or a "denier," you should have no doubt that green technology is going to be one of the biggest business opportunities of the 21st century. As Friedman continues:
    Even if the world never warms another degree, population is projected to rise from 6.7 billion to 9 billion between now and 2050, and more and more of those people will want to live like Americans. In this world, demand for clean power and energy efficient cars and buildings will go through the roof.
    Harnessing the market is also key to my thinking about "government as a platform" (aka "Government 2.0). As I wrote in an as-yet-unpublished chapter for the upcoming O'Reilly book, Open Government: Collaboration, Transparency, and Participation in Practice:
    If you look at the history of the computer industry, the innovations that define each era are frameworks that enabled a whole ecosystem of participation from companies large and small. The personal computer was such a platform. So was the World Wide Web. This same platform dynamic is playing out right now in the recent success of the Apple iPhone. Where other phones had a limited menu of applications developed by the phone vendor and a few carefully chosen partners, Apple built a framework that allowed virtually anyone to build applications for the phone, leading to an explosion of creativity, with more than 100,000 applications appearing for the phone in little more than eighteen months, and more than 3000 new ones now appearing every week.

    This is the right way to frame the question of "Government 2.0." How does government become an open platform that allows people inside and outside government to innovate? How do you design a system in which all of the outcomes aren't specified beforehand, but instead evolve through interactions between government and its citizens, as a service provider enabling its user community?

    It's worth noting that the idea of government as a platform applies to every aspect of the government's role in society. For example, the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956, which committed the United States to building an interstate highway system, was a triumph of platform thinking, a key investment in facilities that had a huge economic and social multiplier effect. Though government builds the network of roads that tie our cities together, it does not operate the factories and farms and businesses that use that network: that opportunity is afforded to "we the people." Government does set policies for the use of those roads, however, regulating interstate commerce, levying gasoline taxes as well as fees on heavy vehicles that damage the roads, setting and policing speed limits, specifying criteria for the safety of bridges and tunnels, and even for vehicles that travel on the roads, and performing many other responsibilities appropriate to a "platform provider."

    While it has become common to ridicule the 1990s description of the Internet as the "information superhighway," the analogy is actually quite apt. Like the internet, the road system is a "network of networks," in which national, state, local, and private roads all interconnect, for the most part without restrictive fees. We have the same rules of the road everywhere in the country, yet anyone, down to a local landowner adding a driveway to an unimproved lot, can connect to the nation's system of roads.

    The launch of weather, communications, and positioning satellites is a similar exercise of platform strategy. When you use a car navigation system to guide you to your destination, you are using an application built on the government platform, extended and enriched by massive private sector investment. When you check the weather - in the newspaper, on TV, or on the internet, you are using applications built using the National Weather Service (or equivalent services in other countries) as a platform. Until recently, the private sector had neither the resources nor the incentives to create space-based infrastructure. Government as a platform provider created capabilities that enrich the possibilities for subsequent private sector investment.

    There are other areas where the appropriate role of the platform provider and the marketplace of application providers is less clear. Health care is a contentious example. Should the government be providing health care, or leaving it to the private sector? The answer is in the outcomes. If the private sector is doing a good job of providing necessary services that lead to the overall increase in the vitality of the country, government should stay out. But just as the interstate highway system increased the vitality of our transportation infrastructure, it is certainly possible that greater government involvement in health care could do the same. But it should do so, if the lesson is correctly learned, not by competing with the private sector to deliver health services, but by investing in infrastructure (and "rules of the road") that will lead to a more robust private sector ecosystem.

    ...platforms always require choices, and those choices must periodically be revisited. Platforms lose their power when they fail to adapt. The US investment in the highway system helped to vitiate our railroads, shaping a society of automobiles and suburbs. Today, we need to rethink the culture of sprawl and fossil fuel use that platform choice encouraged. A platform that once seemed so generative of positive outcomes can become a dead weight over time.

    As we head into the second decade of the 21st century, we as a nation, we as a world need to make good choices about where we invest our time, our resources, and our ingenuity. It's the job of our leaders to make choices that give us leverage, that is, that create multiplier effects on our efforts.

    The choice isn't between climate change alarmism and climate change denial, or between big government and small government. The choice is between dynamism and stagnation, between leadership that creates opportunity and leadership that protects the status quo, and, at bottom, between effective and ineffective strategies for increasing the total wealth of our society.

    And of course, that wealth is more than material. Quality of life means more than quantity of stuff, and a single well designed device (or immaterial service delivered through said device) can deliver more value than a mountain of schlock. We all want to consume less and enjoy more, and it's certainly possible that there will be revolutions in which the next great innovation is itself a technology platform, a substrate of possibility on which immaterial economies grow and prosper.

    I'd love to see, in this New Year, this new decade, deeper thinking about the society we want to build, and what kind of policies will encourage the market to make the right choices.

    And I'd love to hear your thoughts about policy choices that might encourage 21st century industries here in America and around the world.

    Why Using ShopSavvy Might Not Be So Savvy

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2009-12-18

    Reading this morning's New York Times story, Mobile Phones Become Essential Tools for Holiday Shopping, I was reminded again of the fundamental shortsightedness of so many of our economic decisions, that flaw in human nature that makes us seize on temporary advantage without thinking of the long-term consequences.

    The article focuses on the use of applications like ShopSavvy and RedLaser to do comparison price checking while in the store. On the surface, these are great tools for consumers (and there are other applications besides price comparison.) But remember, cutthroat pursuit of the lowest price will hasten the demise of many retailers, while strengthening others (usually, the biggest and most efficient, who can make money on the slenderest margins.) But what happens once those mega-retailers are the last one standing? Prices are likely to go up.

    Particularly troubling is the trend to shop in the store, but then to buy online. From the Times article:

    Matthew Tractenberg, for example, was recently shopping in a Silicon Valley bookstore, where he picked out five books for a total of $80. Before taking them to the counter, he typed the titles into the Amazon app on his BlackBerry Curve. Amazon had the books for $50 and would not charge sales tax or shipping. He placed the order on the spot and left his small pile of books in the store.
    I wrote about this problem in a 2003 piece entitled Buy Where You Shop:
    A few months ago, I was talking with one of my most loyal retail customers, a specialty computer bookstore in Massachusetts. "We survived the chains, and we survived Amazon," he said, "but I don't know if we're going to survive the online discounters. People come in here all the time, browse through the books on display, and then tell me as they leave that they can get a better price online."

    Now, you might say, as the Hawaiian proverb notes, no one promised us tomorrow. Businesses, like individuals and species, must adapt or die. And if the Internet is bad for small, local retailers, it's good for the online resellers and it's good for customers, right?

    But think a little more deeply, and you realize that my friend wasn't complaining that people were buying books elsewhere. He was complaining that people were taking a service from him--browsing the books in his store--and then buying elsewhere. There's a world of difference between those two statements. Online shopping is terrific: you can get detailed product information, recommendations from other customers, make a choice, and have the product delivered right to your door. But if you aren't satisfied with the online shopping experience, you want to look at the physical product, for example browsing through a book in the store, you owe it to the retailer--and to yourself--to buy it there, rather than going home and saving a few dollars by ordering it online.

    Think about it for a minute: the retailer pays rent, orders and stocks the product, pays salespeople. You take advantage of all those services, and then give your money to someone else who can give you a better price because they don't incur the cost of those services you just used. Not only is this unfair; it's short-sighted, because it will only be so long before that retailer closes his or her doors, and you can no longer make use of those services you enjoy.

    The piece struck a chord with booksellers. Many laminated it and hung it by the shelves in their stores. But it didn't make much difference. The store owner who inspired the piece did end up shuttering the business.

    Maybe it's all for the best, part of the creative destruction of capitalism. But as a consumer, it's wise to realize the long-term implications of your choices. Shop at the big box store for the better price, and lose the small local store that was so convenient; browse the shelves or racks in a brick and mortar store, then buy online? How long do you think you'll be able to do that?

    My advice remains the same as it was in 2003: Buy where you shop. If you discover a product online, buy it there. But if you discover it in a store, buy it there. Don't save a few dollars now, and lose the opportunity to shop at a local merchant in the future.

    Of course, if you're happy to lose local bricks-and-mortar merchants, that's your choice. I've never been much of a physical shopper - I do most of my shopping online, and I love the convenience. But when I do go to local stores to browse physical products, I make sure to buy there, even if there's a better price online. I'm paying a little extra for that right to walk up and touch the product before I buy it.

    The War For the Web

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2009-11-16

    On Friday, my latest tweet was automatically posted to my Facebook news feed, as always. But this time, Tom Scoville noticed a difference: the link in the posting was no longer active.

    It turns out that a lot of other people had noticed this too. Mashable wrote about the problem on Saturday morning: Facebook Unlinks Your Twitter Links.

    if you’re posting web links (Bit.ly, TinyURL) to your Twitter feed and using the Twitter Facebook app to share those updates on Facebook too, none of those links are hyperlinked. Your friends will need to copy and paste the links into a browser to make them work.

    If this is a design decision on Facebook’s part, it’s an extremely odd one: we’d like to think it’s an inconvenient bug, and we have a mail in to Facebook to check. Suffice to say, the issue is site-wide: it’s not just you.

    As it turns out, it wasn't just links imported from Twitter. All outbound links were temporarily disabled, unless users explicitly added them as links via an "attach" dialogue. I went to Facebook, and tried posting a link to this blog directly in my status feed, and saw the same behavior: links were no longer automatically made clickable. You can see that in the image that is the destination of the first link in this piece.

    The problem was quickly fixed, with URLs in status updates automatically now linkified again. The consensus was that it was in fact a bug, but it's little surprise that people suspected otherwise, given the increasing amount of effort Facebook puts into warning people that they are leaving Facebook for the big bad unsafe Internet:

    BeCareful.png VisibleEveryone.png

    All of this is well-intentioned, I'm sure. After all, Facebook is attempting to put in place privacy controls that allow its users to manage the visibility of their information -- and the Web's expectation of universal visibility is not necessarily the best default for much of the information posted on Facebook. But let's not kid ourselves: Facebook is a new kind of web site (or an old kind redux), a world of its own, playing by different rules.

    But this isn't just about Facebook.

    The Apple iPhone is the hottest web access device around, and like Facebook, while it connects to the web, it plays by a different set of rules. Anyone can put up a website, or launch a new Windows or Mac OS X or Linux application, without anyone's permission. But put an app onto the iPhone? That requires Apple's blessing.

    There is one glaring loophole: anyone can create a web application, which any user can save as clickable application on their phone. But these web applications have limits - there are key capabilities of the phone that are not accessible to web applications. HTML 5 can introduce all the new application-like features it wants, but they will work only for web applications, and can't access key aspects of the phone with Apple's permission. And as we saw earlier this year with Apple's rejection of the Google Voice application, Apple isn't shy about blocking applications that it considers threatening to their core business, or that of their partners.

    And now, of course, we see the latest salvo in the war against the accepted rules of interoperability on the web: Rupert Murdoch's threat to take the Wall Street Journal out of the Google search index. While most people have repeated the existing wisdom that to do so would be suicide for the Journal, a few contrarian observers have noted the leverage Murdoch holds. Mark Cuban argues that Twitter now trumps search engines when it comes to breaking news. Even more provocatively, Jason Calacanis suggested, a few weeks before Murdoch's announcement, that all big media companies need to do to cut Google off at the knees would be to block Google, while cutting an exclusive deal with Bing to be found only in Microsoft's search index.

    Of course, Google wouldn't take that lying down, and would likely make its own exclusive deals, leading to a showdown that would make the browser wars of the 90s seem tame.

    I'm not saying that News Corp and other mainstream media publications would adopt Jason's suggested strategy, or that it would work if they did, but it is becoming clear to me that we are heading into a bloody period of competition that could be extremely unfriendly to the interoperable web as we know it today.

    If you've followed my thinking about Web 2.0 from the beginning, you know that I believe we are engaged in a long term project to build an internet operating system. (Check out the program for the first O'Reilly Emerging Technology Conference in 2002 (pdf).) In my talks over the years, I've argued that there are two models of operating system, which I have characterized as "One Ring to Rule Them All" and "Small Pieces Loosely Joined," with the latter represented by a routing map of the Internet.

    OneRingLooselyJoined.png

    The first is the winner-takes-all world that we saw with Microsoft Windows on the PC, a world that promises simplicity and ease of use, but ends up diminishing user and developer choice as the operating system provider.

    The second is an operating system that works like the Internet itself, like the web, and like open source operating systems like Linux: a world that is admittedly less polished, less controlled, but one that is profoundly generative of new innovations because anyone can bring new ideas to the market without having to ask permission of anyone.

    I've outlined a few of the ways that big players like Facebook, Apple, and News Corp are potentially breaking the "small pieces loosely joined" model of the Internet. But perhaps most threatening of all are the natural monopolies created by Web 2.0 network effects.

    One of the points I've made repeatedly about Web 2.0 is that it is the design of systems that get better the more people use them, and that over time, such systems have a natural tendency towards monopoly.

    And so we've grown used to a world with one dominant search engine, one dominant online encyclopedia, one dominant online retailer, one dominant auction site, one dominant online classified site, and we've been readying ourselves for one dominant social network.

    But what happens when a company with one of these natural monopolies uses it to gain dominance in other, adjacent areas? I've been watching with a mixture of admiration and alarm as Google has taken their dominance in search and used it to take control of other, adjacent data-driven applications. I noted this first with speech recognition, but it's had the biggest business impact so far in location-based services.

    A few weeks ago, Google offered free turn-by-turn directions for Android phones. This is awesome news for consumers, who previously could get this only in dedicated GPS devices or with high-priced iPhone apps. But it's also a sign just how competitive the web is getting, and just how powerful Google is getting, because they understand that "data is the Intel Inside" of the next generation of computer applications.

    Nokia paid $8 billion for NavTeq, the leading provider of such turn-by-turn directions. GPS-maker TomTom paid $3.7 billion for TeleAtlas, the #2 provider in the market. Google quietly built an equivalent service, and is now giving it away for free -- but only to their own business partners. Everyone else still has to pay high fees to NavTeq and TeleAtlas. What's more, Google upped the ante by adding in such features as Street View.

    Most interestingly, this move sets the stage for the future competition between Google and Apple. (Bill Gurley's analysis is an essential read.) Apple controls access to the dominant device of the mobile web; Google controls access to one of the most important mobile applications, and so far, is making it available for free only on Android. Google's prowess is not just in search, but in mapping, speech recognition, automated translation, and other applications driven by huge, intelligent databases that only a few providers can offer. Microsoft and Nokia control comparable assets, but they too are Apple competitors, and unlike Google, their business model depends on selling access to those assets, not giving them away for free.

    It could be that everyone will figure out how to play nicely with each other, and we'll see a continuation of the interoperable web model we've enjoyed for the past two decades. But I'm betting that things are going to get ugly. We're heading into a war for control of the web. And in the end, it's more than that, it's a war against the web as an interoperable platform. Instead, we're facing the prospect of Facebook as the platform, Apple as the platform, Google as the platform, Amazon as the platform, where big companies slug it out until one is king of the hill.

    And it's time for developers to take a stand. If you don't want a repeat of the PC era, place your bets now on open systems. Don't wait till it's too late.

    P.S. One prediction: Microsoft will emerge as a champion of the open web platform, supporting interoperable web services from many independent players, much as IBM emerged as the leading enterprise backer of Linux.

    I'll be speaking on this topic in my keynote at the Web 2.0 Expo in New York on Tuesday. I'll look forward to seeing many of you there.

    Safari Books Online 6.0: A Cloud Library as an alternate model for ebooks

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2009-10-28

    There has been a lot of attention paid to ebooks lately, and for good reason. Electronic books are portable, searchable, and more affordable than print books. The web has accustomed readers to having the latest information at their fingertips; we all ask why books should be any less available "on demand."

    Amazon’s Kindle has received the most mainstream attention (with new entries like Barnes & Noble's Nook making dedicated ebook readers into the latest competitive horse-race), but ebooks are taking off even faster on the iPhone and other smart phones. Ebooks are one of the most popular classes of iPhone application. Recent releases of O'Reilly ebooks as iPhone applications have even outsold the same books in print. Direct sales of the ebook bundles we offer from oreilly.com (PDF, epub, or mobi files) also exceed our direct sales of print books from the site.

    Yet our most popular ebook offering by far is often not even thought of as an ebook. Safari Books Online is an online book and video subscription service, launched in partnership with the Pearson Technology Group in 2001. It contains more than 10,000 technical and business books and videos from more than 40 publishers. It has more than 15 million users (including the number of concurrent seats available through libraries and universities); it is now the second largest reseller of O’Reilly books, exceeded only by Amazon.com, and its revenue dwarfs our sales of downloadable ebooks. It's also the most affordable of our ebook offerings for those who are regular consumers of technical content. The average Safari Books Online subscriber uses at least seven books a month, and many use dozens (or even more), yet the monthly price (depending on the subscription plan) ranges from little more than the price of a single downloadable ebook to no greater than that of two or three.

    Here’s the rub: most people thinking about ebooks are focused on creating an electronic recreation of print books, complete with downloadable files and devices that look and feel like books. This is a bit like pointing a camera at a stage play and concluding that was the essence of filmmaking!

    At O’Reilly, we’ve tried to focus not on the form of the book but on the job that it does for our customers. It teaches, it informs, it entertains. How might electronic publishing help us to advance those aims? How might we create a more effective tool that would help our customers get their job done?

    It was by asking ourselves those questions that we realized the advantages of an online library available by subscription. One of the best things about online technical books is the ability to search the full text of a book. How much better would it be to be able to search across thousands of books? Safari Books Online was our answer.

    And it just got better. Safari Books Online 6.0, released yesterday, brings a new level of ease of use. It’s a complete, bottom-to-top revamping of the original service. The old UI was, to say the least, getting long in the tooth.

    The new UI is slicker and faster, with the kind of drag-and-drop goodness that people expect from a modern web application. In addition, we’ve added some long-requested features, including:

    Improved Interactivity -- With 6.0 you can make inline notes, in the actual text you are reading. You can dog-ear or bookmark specific pages. You can highlight text and associate it with notes. When you are done you can print those pages with both your highlights and notes on them. You can scroll non-stop through the pages of a book without any page refresh, or scan a block of pages in thumbnail view to spot the page you are looking for.

    Personalized Folders - Rather than having thousands of books and videos organized by us in a single technology topic taxonomy, you can now put together your own organization, grouping books in the categories most useful to you. You can restrict searches to only the books you’ve chosen, and can search within the results of a saved search.

    Collaboration - Even better, if you’re a corporate subscriber, you can share your categorization with other members of your company or workgroup. Not only can team members share folders, they can share book reviews, notes and highlights.

    Smart Folders - New books, videos and articles are being added to Safari Books Online all the time. Searches saved as "smart folders" make it easy to keep up with the latest content in your area of interest. We have also improved our search user interface to allow you to search inside the book or in other books without leaving the page you are reading. Switch pages only when you find what you want.

    SafariSmartFolder.png


    As you can see, many of these features take advantage of the online medium in ways that aren’t possible with standalone ebooks. To be sure, there are times you want your own offline copy, and in Safari Books Online, you can indeed download books or chapters for offline use. But especially given the rise of the smartphone as an access device, the times when we are truly "offline" are becoming few and far between. The vision with which we started Safari, that of always-on access to a library of technical content, not just to individual ebooks, is now within reach. Safari Books Online can be used on a desktop or laptop computer or in the browser on a mobile phone. Everything is always in sync because your library is in the cloud.

    An ebook cloud works the same way the web itself works. It provides ubiquitous access and shared experience.

    Lessons Learned from the development of Safari Books Online

    As I outlined above, Safari adopted a "cloud library" model rather than downloadable ebooks as its fundamental design metaphor. I thought it might be worthwhile to understand how we arrived at that decision, as well as some of the other lessons we’ve learned over what is now 22 years of ebook publishing experience. (O’Reilly published its first ebook, Unix in a Nutshell for Hypercard, back in 1987!) With that, a few reflections on lessons learned:

    Embrace and encourage standards.

    In the late 1980s, O'Reilly had developed a series of books on a technology called the X Window System, which was used by all of the large computer workstation vendors (and still remains an important part of Linux.) Many of these vendors were shipping our books as their documentation, and many of them said, "We'd like to do away with printed documentation. We want to ship only online documentation."

    They came to us with what they thought was a wonderful value proposition. "Just put your books into our fill-in the blank platform" -- each one of them had its own proprietary system: IBM Info-Explorer, Sun AnswerBook, HP LaserROM. We replied, "This doesn't sound like a very good business to us. We'll find ourselves always chasing all these different formats. We have a better idea. We want to come up with a common format for technical books. You guys all learn to read it." So, we started working with several of the vendors and came up with an open-standards SGML format for technical manuals called Docbook. (SGML was a precursor to XML.)

    Perhaps most importantly, working with SGML led us to the World Wide Web. We decided early on that we wanted our ebook strategy to be a web strategy. We built a set of XML to HTML workflows that allowed us to produce multiple output formats from the same source files - a long, painful, and hotly debated process that took far longer to pay off than we expected, as the rest of the industry was slower to adopt ebooks than we were. In the late 1990s, we even offered HTML-based books on CD-ROM, a product line that we called "CD Bookshelves." (These products, which put 5 to 7 related books onto a single CD, were a precursor to Safari Books Online's original "bookshelf" business model.)

    Eventually, we realized that we'd have to encourage downloadable ebook standards as well. Recently, we've seen the same format fragmentation that we saw in the early 1990s, where publishers are being asked to support multiple proprietary ebook formats. The XML publishing systems we've built at O'Reilly make it relatively easy to produce multiple formats; other publishers are not so lucky. But more importantly, multiple formats create a real tax on the reader, as ebook vendors work to create customer lock-in.

    While we can't control the actions of ebook resellers or other publishers, we can set a good example. That's why O’Reilly today offers downloadable books as bundles of three popular formats, PDF, epub (an open XML standard), and mobi (convertible to Kindle.) Currently, Safari Books Online only supports PDF downloads. We’d like to see them offer ebook bundles as well. But more importantly, we’d like to see all vendors supporting epub.

    Work with your competitors.

    One of our mottos at O’Reilly is to "create more value than you capture." When we launched Safari Books Online, we knew we were working to build an entire industry, not just a new product.

    With this in mind, we reached out to the Pearson Technology Group, our biggest competitor, creating Safari Books Online as a joint venture between the two companies. Safari went live with the entire library of O’Reilly and Pearson books. (Pearson imprints include Addison-Wesley, Prentice-Hall, Peachpit, Sams, Que, Cisco Press, and Adobe Press.) Since then, Safari Books Online has added books and videos from nearly every other computer book publisher, including Microsoft Press, Wiley, APress. The Pragmatic Programmers, Manning, and many others.

    While we still compete fiercely with Pearson in acquiring new authors and titles, and in selling those books to the public, we cooperate in coming up with new features that we think will help to make Safari Books Online a better product. We each have our own skunkworks for new features (in O'Reilly's case, labs.oreilly.com), but once we understand that something works, we encourage Safari to adopt it.

    It also turns out that while we cooperate on the technology and design of Safari Books Online, the cloud library model provides ample room for competition at the content level. One of the advantages of Safari Books Online as a separate joint venture is that it is a level playing field for all participating publishers. Remuneration to publishers and authors is based on actual usage of books and videos. This has led to some interesting side-effects, in particular, deeper usage of books that are out of print or in limited availability, confirming Chris Anderson's long tail theory.

    Electronic publishing requires an ecosystem

    The other key insight that led us to develop Safari was that we realized that for ebooks to succeed, they would need a distribution infrastructure. In 1995, early in the commercialization of the internet, I wrote a paper entitled Publishing Models for Internet Commerce. In it, I wrote:

    [Here] are some of the characteristics of the print publishing market that make me think it provides some of the best models for the commercial Internet I'd like to see developed:

    • Barriers to entry are low. Especially with the advent of desktop publishing, almost anyone can produce a book, a magazine, a newsletter.

    • Niches abound. Over 50,000 books are published each year in the U.S. alone. A major bookselling chain such as Borders keeps literally hundreds of thousands of unique titles in inventory. And despite major industry consolidation,and focus on a small number of bestsellers, there are still thousands of publishers, ranging in size from those who publish only a single book to those who publish thousands. What's more, there are about 3500 general circulation magazines and tens of thousands of newsletters and other limited circulation publications.

    • So do business models. Books are sold "by the piece." They are also available for free in the library, though in limited circulation. Magazines and newspapers may be had for free (perhaps subsidized by advertising or membership), for a single-copy newsstand price, or for a recurring subscription fee. Prices range from a few dollars to hundreds or even thousands of dollars for specialized newsletters.

    • No one "owns" the market, or needs to. A bestselling book might sell a million copies or so. The largest circulation magazine in the country, the AARP's membership magazine, has a circulation of about 7 million, Reader's Digest about 5 million. No one else comes close. It's possible to have a successful book selling only a few thousand copies, a newsletter a few hundred, and a four color magazine a few tens of thousands.

    • The same technology is available to everyone. No one publisher has a "proprietary edge." No one has a proprietary format. In some cases (consider Bible publishing), the publisher doesn't even have proprietary content!

    • There is a rich ecology of mutually successful players. Authors sell to publishers. Publishers screen material, edit and produce it to add value, develop a marketing campaign, and build a network of distribution relationships to get the book to the ultimate consumer. Publishers may sell books directly to the consumer, through major retailers, and through wholesalers to smaller retailers whom they don't serve directly. Other wholesalers service libraries and corporations--some of whom also order directly. No one has to do it all, and there are opportunities for many players to work together, each making a profit by performing services in a value chain that stretches from the author to the reader.

    • Access is universal and non-exclusive. You don't have to belong to the local bookstore to shop there, and even if you usually buy your books there, you can go across the street if Borders or Barnes & Noble has a better deal. Distribution is spotty--you can't find every book in every store--but with special orders, you can get virtually anything within a few days. You don't find many books that you can only buy through a special outlet.

    These principles continue to guide my thinking about how to commercialize online content. (Despite its age, the whole paper is still worth a read.)

    But I want to focus in on one point from the list above "There is a rich ecology of mutually successful players." In a world where many players are trying to cut others out of the value chain, it's worth remembering that vibrant industries have a rich ecosystem, not a monoculture. And distribution is an important part of that ecosystem.

    In 2000, I gave a talk entitled The ecology of ebook publishing. I talked about my experiences as a print and online publisher, and what I'd learned about ebooks as a result:

    Even now the web is not a fully developed ecosystem, but you can see that seven years after we started doing commercial Web sites, there is a rich ecology of players who help each other to succeed. There are companies that do analysis of your site traffic. There are companies that serve your ads. There are companies that understand to buy the ads. There are companies that follow the market and track who's got market share. There are people who resell ads on behalf of other people and ad networks. So, over time we developed in the Web space a mini analog to what we had earlier in the print space, which was lots of different companies working together in a kind of business ecology.

    So, with all this as backdrop, I want to just talk a little bit about where we are right now with e-books. I don't know how long all of you have been working with e-books, but I'm now tracing my work in trying to get this puppy to fly, for 12 to 13 years. Actually, 14. Our first e-book was in 1986. And I see that the biggest problem is the lack of an ecology. And ecology is a really good metaphor for thinking about how marketplaces develop.

    When you look at, say, ecological reclamations, for example what happened around Mt. St. Helens when it exploded, you have this gradual resurgence of species. One species makes way for another. So primitive plants will break down the rock and gradually make some soil so that something else can take root. There really isn't time to grow mature forests on, say, the bed of just-cool lava. This is also the way ecosystems develop in business. You have to say, "Okay, you've got to break this thing down."

    And we're still in that stage for e-books. I know this doesn't really give us a great deal of guidance about what works in the e-book space, but it does give us a lot of guidance about what will not work.

    What I think will not work are approaches that try to go it alone....

    I believe that distribution systems exist for the same reason that we have alveoli in our lungs. They create surface area. Any of you who have been in publishing know that there are two classes of customers. There are the people who already know that they want your product, who can come to you directly, and then there's the people who are going to encounter your product by chance. For most of book publishing and certainly for most of trade book publishing, the people who are going to encounter your product by chance are far greater in number than the people who are going to seek it out.

    Now, I'm in a fortunate end of the business where, for example, a book like Programming Perl is the only book by the author of a program that's very widely used and so people say, "Oh, there's a book out by Larry Wall" and they look for it. There are tens of thousands to buy it and there's a ready-made direct audience. And, certainly, you have people like Stephen King, or Prince, who has done this in the music world, who have already built up an audience over time and who can say, "Hey, come to me directly."

    But, for the most part, digital publishing and online publishing systems are going to have to re-create the kind of richness of distribution networks that we see in the print world.

    So, the systems that we provide have to allow for the kinds of behaviors that have supported our print marketplaces. So when you're evaluating an e-book distribution system, you have to ask yourself questions like "Does it have pricing and mechanisms that support pass-through by multiple layers of wholesalers or retailers or distributors?" because you can't assume that you will have a direct relationship with everyone who might want to sell your books. Is there a mechanism for someone to pick up part of the margin? What does pricing look like? If you haven't thought that through, we don't have a viable system, or we have a viable system that will support only direct to consumer sales.

    As a result of these convictions, we developed a portal strategy that allowed Safari to be skinned and "resold" by each of the participating publishers. We built a direct corporate sales force to call on Fortune 500 companies. We also developed reseller relationships with library wholesalers, training companies, and others who could increase our reach into the marketplace. We even tried (without success) to have Safari subscriptions resold by book retailers like Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Borders.

    More than 60% of Safari revenue now comes from corporate and library sales; 40% from direct customer sales via the various publisher portals like the ones at O’Reilly, Pearson’s InformIT and Peachpit, and Safari’s own consumer portal


    What Job Do Your Books Do?

    In order to understand how to succeed with ebooks, it helps to ask the right questions. As I mentioned earlier, the first question is this: what job does a book do? This is not the same for all publishers. If you publish bird identification guides, WhatBird.com shows how much more easily you can do your job online, and how you can do it even better on an iPhone. If you publish maps and atlases, Google Maps clearly does the same job, and does it better, than a print book.

    Most publishers exploring the ebook market think of so called ludic reading, that feeling of getting lost in a good book. Jeff Bezos explicitly called this out as one of the goals of the Kindle.

    "The key feature of a book is that it disappears."

    But this isn’t the only reason we read. Years ago, I heard Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christenson explain how different products do different jobs for different customers at different times. He gave an example of a Harvard study done of McDonalds’ milkshakes. Peak sales in the morning were to solitary commuters, whiling away a long commute. Peak sales in the afternoon were to soccer moms hurrying up a pack of kids who’d gotten a visit to McDonalds for a treat after practice. Two different jobs, perhaps two different products: In the morning, thick and slow is good; in the afternoon, a bit quicker to drink might make mom a bit happier.

    I've applied this kind of thinking to our publishing strategy, both in print and online. Our books are used to learn about new technology, to search for task-relevant information, and to a much lesser extent, for entertainment. As a result, you'll see a clear bifurcation in our publishing program between books that are primarily used for reference, like the Cookbook series, versus those that are used for learning, like the Head First series, or those that are read for fun, like Make: magazine. And in online publishing, we built Safari Books Online for reference and just-in-time learning, and the O'Reilly School of Technology for structured online learning with live instructors.

    Where do we go from here?

    One more important feature being added to Safari is a new, lighter-weight development model. The Safari team has been working with Eric Ries of the Lean Startup fame to adopt the kind of constant improvement that characterizes the best web applications. From here on out, we’ll be adding new features and functionality, and improving the interface, on an ongoing basis rather than in massive stair-stepped releases.

    And yes, there are lots of features I’d like to see, including:

    • More cross-book links provided by publishers (and the ability for readers to make their own links across the site)

    • An improved version of the commenting features in Rough Cuts, Safari Books Online’s early access program for books under development. (You can see one experimental system, O’Reilly’s Open Feedback Publishing System at O’Reilly Labs.)

    • Support for multi-format downloadable ebooks. Right now, Safari Books Online users can download PDFs. I’d like to see Safari support epub and mobi (Kindle) file formats as well. In addition, I’d like to make the purchase of offline copies less cumbersome than provided by the current token system. (Subscribers receive a certain number of free tokens each month and can purchase additional tokens. Each publisher sets its own price in tokens for downloads.)

    Please leave your own suggestions for improvements in the comments.

    Thoughts on the Whitehouse.gov switch to Drupal

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2009-10-25

    Yesterday, the new media team at the White House announced via the Associated Press that whitehouse.gov is now running on Drupal, the open source content management system. That Drupal implementation is in turn running on a Red Hat Linux system with Apache, MySQL and the rest of the LAMP stack. Apache Solr is the new White House search engine.

    This move is obviously a big win for open source. As John Scott of Open Source for America (a group advocating open source adoption by government, to which I am an advisor) noted in an email to me: "This is great news not only for the use of open source software, but the validation of the open source development model. The White House's adoption of community-based software provides a great example for the rest of the government to follow."

    John is right. While open source is already widespread throughout the government, its adoption by the White House will almost certainly give permission for much wider uptake.

    Particularly telling are the reasons that the White House made the switch. According to the AP article:

    White House officials described the change as similar to rebuilding the foundation of a building without changing the street-level appearance of the facade. It was expected to make the White House site more secure - and the same could be true for other administration sites in the future....

    Having the public write code may seem like a security risk, but it's just the opposite, experts inside and outside the government argued. Because programmers collaborate to find errors or opportunities to exploit Web code, the final product is therefore more secure.

    More than just security, though, the White House saw the opportunity to increase their flexibility. Drupal has a huge library of user-contributed modules that will provide functionality the White House can use to expand its social media capabilities, with everything from super-scalable live chats to multi-lingual support. In many ways, this is the complement to the Government as Platform mantra I've been chanting in Washington. When you build a vibrant, extensible platform, others add value to the foundation you establish; when you join such a platform, you get the benefit of all those features you didn't have to develop yourself.

    Of course, it's easy to imagine that the use of open source software will slash the government's IT budget. After all, this software is freely downloadable. I have a feeling it's quite a bit more complicated than that.

    First off, government has a huge number of special requirements (remember the flap over President Obama's blackberry?) Second, don't underestimate the difficulty of doing business in Washington. Procurement is done through a complex ballet understood by few open source companies. Third, a big IT deployment like this requires coordination between many companies, each providing a piece of the puzzle. According to techpresident.com, no fewer than five firms were involved in the switch: prime contractor General Dynamics Information Systems, Drupal specialists Phase 2 and Acquia, hosting provider Terremark, and CDN-supplier Akamai. (Disclosure: O'Reilly AlphaTech Ventures is an investor in Acquia.)

    The special nature of the government marketplace is one of the reasons why I launched the Gov 2.0 Expo, which will be held in Washington DC next May. There are huge opportunities for open source, web 2.0, and new media companies in government, but there are also challenges reaching that market. One of my goals for the event is to increase the visibility of cutting edge technology firms not just to government agencies, but also to the prime contractors who are putting together these complex procurements.

    The net-net is that I suspect that simply using open source software won't slash government IT budgets, at least not right away. What it will do is increase the amount of value we get for our money and the speed with which new technology can be adopted. Features that would have cost millions of dollars and years of development to add will now be rolled into the scope of current contracts.

    It's also important to realize that using open source is very different from contributing to open source. Despite the exaggerated claims in the AP story, that "the programming language is written in public view, available for public use and able for people to edit", the White House has not yet released any of the modifications they made to Drupal or its operating environment back to the open source community. The source code for Drupal (and the rest of the LAMP stack) is indeed available, but the modifications that were made to meet government security, scalability, and hosting requirements have not yet been shared. In my conversations with the new media team at the White House, it is clear that they are exploring this option.

    Giving modifications back to the Drupal community is the next breakthrough announcement that I'll be looking for.

    Releasing code is more than just being a good open source community citizen, though. Code sharing is a major cost-saving opportunity for government. There are countless government agencies at the federal level, not to mention at the state and local level, that perform similar functions. Yet each of them does its own development, driving up costs. Federal CIO Vivek Kundra has made a great step forward in web services by creating data.gov. I'm eager to see an analogous code.gov portal for government agencies to share their open source software code.

    Web 2.0 Summit Starts Today

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2009-10-20

    Last year at Web 2.0 Summit, one prominent tech executive responded to our focus on "Web meets World" -- the way web technology is being used to attack the world's problems -- by saying "I don't come to this conference to learn how to do good. I come to learn about trends that are going to affect my business."

    As it turns out, the "Web meets World" theme was in fact exactly on point with the trends that were going to affect his business. What Fred Wilson calls "the golden triangle" of Web meets World trends -- mobile, social, and real-time -- are at the heart of many of the cutting edge non-profit activities we showed last year, and they are very much at the heart of the for-profit companies following hard on their heels.

    I've written a much longer paper on this subject - Web Squared: Web 2.0 Five Years On, and I won't repeat that there. But that's the theory. The practice is how entrepreneurs are taking advantage of these disruptive trends, how big companies are responding, and what kind of infrastructure changes we'll need to support the future that is coming at us.

    This year at the Web 2.0 Summit, we'll be hearing how real-time, social, and mobile play out in the strategy of Google, Microsoft, Intel, Facebook, Twitter, Yahoo!, News Corp, AOL, Comcast, Nokia, and even GE, but we'll also be hearing from entrepreneurs, and yes, even some more innovative hackers who are helping birth the future away from the commercial limelight.

    The official sessions are great, but it's the hallway conversations that can really set your mind off in a new direction. For example, at a pre-Summit event last night, I had a fascinating conversation with Marc Pincus of Zynga last night about his belief that the third great internet business model has arrived. Fortunately, you don't need to bump into Marc to hear what he thinks: he's speaking this afternoon at 4:15. He's put his ideas about social selling into practice, with 129 million users playing Zynga games each month, spending millions of dollars on virtual goods. But what's most fascinating is how Marc sees the potential to apply social gaming principles to all of e-commerce. His riff on how what's he's learned applies to Amazon (and anyone else selling on the web) is worth the price of admission to the Summit.

    I hope to see you at the Summit. John Battelle and I kick off the show with opening remarks at 2 pm at the Westin Market Street in San Francisco.

    Blog Action Day 2009: Climate Change

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2009-10-15

    Today is Blog Action Day 2009. This is an annual event, held every October 15, with a goal of encouraging an outpouring of simultaneous comment on an important issue calling for global action. This year, the designated subject is climate change.

    Back in January, I wrote a blog post summarizing my position on climate change. Entitled Pascal's Wager and Climate Change, the post makes the argument that even if you're a skeptic about climate change or humanity's role in causing it, the risks of ignoring the issue are great, and the benefits from addressing it are significant even if scientists are completely wrong about the causes. What I wrote in January still seems sound, so please go back to the original post, linked above, to review my argument and the vibrant comment thread.

    In the meantime, here are a couple of my favorite climate-change related resources:

    • Greenmonk. Greenmonk is a good blog, but I also love their mission of providing advisory services to companies trying to develop climate change strategies.
    • RealClimate, which bills itself as providing "Climate science from climate scientists", and delivers.
    • energyliteracy.com, a site created by my son-in-law Saul Griffith to help people understand the math and engineering concepts around energy use and climate change. It's amazing how many people talk about the issue without understanding the basic units with which energy is measured. Wattzon is another site that Saul created to help people quantify the energy they use. From what I can see, users way under-report their actual energy consumption, but the ideas, presentations, and posts on the site are extraordinarily informative.
    • Worldchanging, a site that doesn't just cover climate change, but focuses on technologies and practices with positive global impact.
    Feel free to supply additional links (pro- and con-) in the comments. And if you care about the issue (you should!), write your own Blog Action Day post.

    My Conversation with Austan Goolsbee at Web 2.0 Summit

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2009-10-15

    He introduces himself as "another tall, skinny guy with big ears and a funny name." Economics adviser to Barack Obama during the campaign, and now a member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers and chief economist of the Economic Recovery Advisory Board, Austan Goolsbee is a key figure in framing the economic thinking of the Obama administration. Perhaps most importantly for those of us in Silicon Valley, he's an economist clued in to the tech world. His economics papers cover such topics as the impact of taxes on technology diffusion, the impact of internet subsidies on public schools, and the economic impact of leisure time spent on the internet. He's worked closely with Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein of Nudge fame, and thinks a lot about the power of default options to shape behavior, a topic that any web developer should also know by heart.

    I'll be interviewing Austan Goolsbee on stage at the Web 2.0 Summit. In preparation for our conversation next week, I spent an hour with him yesterday morning. He's a fascinating guy. To give you a taste of the kinds of things we'll be talking about, here's a short transcript of his response to my question about the economic impact of the internet:

    Somehow, in my economist heart always lies the revealed preference thing, which is: People are investing tons of their time, tons of their money, tons of their energy into the internet; they wouldn't be doing this for no reason. Regardless of whether we have the data, our presumption ought to be that it's a big productivity improver. But I also think that the evidence on big general-purpose technologies like that is usually that when they're first invented, the impact takes a while to show up, but when it does, boy is it a big time thing, outside just the industry itself, across the board.

    If you go back ten years, which isn't that long, the social landscape and the technological landscape are almost unrecognizable. And just that impact, at this early stage, is sufficiently big that you've got to think that twenty years from now, the internet is going to have humongous productivity implications.

    Take the health sector. People say "not only does the health sector need to enter the 21st century, it needs to enter the 20th century!" The technology is sufficiently backwards in terms of the information processing - everything's on paper! If you start envisioning healthcare, energy, the government itself -- major league shares of the GDP -- and what the potential is of marrying that to the newest technologies...! Economic potential, historically speaking, tends to be a bit like water. Water will always get to the lowest point. If there's big potential somewhere, it may take a bit of time, but we always find a way to unlock it.

    We'll be talking about what Goolsbee would recommend doing differently if we had a "do-over" on the economic stimulus, the importance of innovation to any future economic recovery, education and income inequality, financial services oversight, and President Obama's desire for "iPod government" (which Goolsbee describes as "making [government] simple and easy to use, so that people like it, rather than giving people the third degree and a lot of red tape.")

    If you had a chance to sit one-on-one with one of President Obama's economic advisers, what would you ask him? Help me prep for the interview by making suggestions in the comments. It will be tough to do as good a job as Jon Stewart, but hopefully we can come up with some questions that get Austan going!

    "He not busy being born is busy dying"

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2009-10-14

    I found myself quoting that great Bob Dylan line the other day on a mailing list for those dealing with the changes sweeping through the publishing industry. Michael Coffey from Publisher's Weekly wrote an eloquent and moving lament that expresses the fear of many that the book might be losing its pre-eminent position in the cultural canon. He wrote:

    I think one of the perspectives little addressed in this terrific thread is that of the impact disappearing books might have on the writer---not the librarian, bookseller, or reader--but the creative class for whom leaving behind, in their stead, on bookshelves or libraries of in the collections of their families, a discrete object that is their creation, [is] a testament to the occcasion of their having created something out of nothing. This creation of an artifact might, I would propose, have played an enormous part in our cultural production over the centuries. To know that there, in a little dimensional space somewhere are one's singular compositions-- bound and protected (to some extent) and real--has power. If the book disappears to a degree that allows us to say, "hey, hasn't the book disappeared?--how will culturual production change? Will knowing your work is in code in some nondimensional space, dark and immaterial unless accessed by a curious soul, be enough to replace that other enticement?
    Much as I sympathize with Michael's concern - I love books, make my living publishing them, and live surrounded by them as my constant companions - and despite loving the way he framed the question, I had to take issue with the idea that if books became less important as artifacts and carriers of culture, writers would stop writing:
    Given that cultural production is continuing unabated on blogs and YouTube, I don't think we need to worry about it "disappearing" but you're right that it will likely change. But who says that the book has ever been the ideal unit of self-expression, or the best tool for expression of ideas?
    Michael replied:
    I do think centuries of cultures have held that belief--perhaps not that it was the ideal unit, but the best we had. Now, of course, the issue of ease of access has become paramount, and the traditional book has slipped a bit further back from the "ideal." But it reigned supreme for a long time for good reasons, and its status as an object was part of it. I guess it is our privilege to see how this may work itself out...
    Michael makes a really good point, that as we move from books to ebooks, and to other forms of writing - on the web, for mobile devices, and even on evanescent media like mailing lists and twitter - the way we express ourselves will also change. But of course, this is not new. The "modern novel" is only a few hundred years old; poetry was once primarily a spoken art and written down only after the fact. You have only to read an eighteenth century book to realize how much the form has evolved even during the tenure of the printed and bound book. I responded:
    Well, for many centuries, the painting played that role in visual arts. It was superseded (for many purposes) by photography. Painting still is practiced, but it's a niche art. However, visual arts are practiced more widely than ever before, and are appreciated more widely, by more people. Something is lost, but something is gained.

    Worth reflecting on: the opening chapters of Victor Hugo's Notre Dame de Paris ("The Hunchback of Notre Dame") are a lament to the loss of visual literacy - the ability to read the stories told in the sculpture on the walls of a Cathedral - as a result of the rise of reading.

    We might also lament the loss of the prodigious feats of memory that were common before literacy was widespread, or the loss of physical skills (horseback riding, shooting, fencing, needlepoint, piano playing) that were once common before the rise of the technologies that made them hobbies rather than necessities.

    A great line from Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars trilogy: "He knew then that history is a wave that moves through time slightly faster than we do." Eventually, we all get out of step with the world as the habits of our youth are replaced by the habits of the next generation's youth.

    P.S. Another great novel dealing with this effect is Booth Tarkington's The Magnificent Ambersons. Just as the motorcar ended the days of the horse (the frame of that story), new forms of writing and reading may be ending the days of the modern book. This is a good thing, overall, if we embrace it. We can be vaudeville players sneering at the new moving pictures, or we can go west and become part of the new Hollywood.

    Transitions are tough on old industries. But remember that part of why they are tough is that something new is being born. Bob Dylan: "he not busy being born is busy dying."

    Going back to check my facts, I find that it is not an early chapter of Notre Dame de Paris, but later in the book, in a chapter entitled One Shall Destroy The Other, that Victor Hugo explores the relationship of the cathedral and the book:
    This thought is full of the foreboding that one power is about to be succeeded by another. "One shall destroy the other;" in other words, the Press shall overthrow the Church.

    But underlying this thought — the first and simplest, it is true — there is...the presentiment not merely of the priest, but that of the scholar, the artist; the presentiment that human thought, in changing its form, was about to change its mode of expression ; that the leading idea of each generation would not always be inscribed in the same fashion, with the same material; that the book of stone, so solid and durable, was about to give place to another, still more substantial and durable, — the book of paper. Beneath the archdeacon's statement, his vague formula, there was another, deeper significance; the thought that one art shall dethrone another, — Printing shall 'overthrow Architecture.

    It's a brilliant chapter, full of humanity and wisdom. Anyone who is afraid of change, and needs context to accept it, should read it.

    As authors and publishers explore the new world of online reading and writing, we need to do more than just translate print books to an electronic screen. We have a future to invent! And the time is now. At the just-concluded Tools of Change for Publishing Conference in Frankfurt, Sara Lloyd of Pan Macmillan drove home the urgency with which publishers need to engage with the grand experiment:

    "The new thing is never as good as the old thing, at least right now. Soon, the new thing will be better than the old will be. But if you wait until then it’s going to be too late."
    I have a feeling that this is a lesson not just for publishers, but for our entire culture, as many of the things we've taken for granted begin to shift, either because of new inventions, or because of failures of existing systems.

    "He not busy being born is busy dying."

    Microsoft Press Enters Strategic Alliance with O'Reilly

    Tim O'Reilly @timoreilly 2009-09-24

    Today, Microsoft and O'Reilly Media announced an agreement to support and expand Microsoft Press. Under the terms of the strategic alliance, O'Reilly will be the exclusive distributor of Microsoft Press titles and co-publisher of all Microsoft Press titles, on Nov. 30, 2009. We'll be working with Microsoft to develop new books, as well as distributing both existing and new co-published books to bookstores, and, perhaps most importantly, to the emerging digital book channels that represent the future of book publishing.

    Microsoft could have chosen to partner with any of the major computer book publishers. That they chose to work with us is a testament to three advantages we bring to the business:

    1. O'Reilly is more than a book publisher. We are an advocate, a connector, and a community builder. We help developers and users make the most of technology, with a focus on what they need to know. Microsoft has a history of building great developer communities, but in today's world, those communities need to be connected with other communities outside Microsoft. Especially in technology, "the world is flat."
    2. O'Reilly plays a unique role in the technology ecosystem: from our earliest days, we provided the documentation for important technologies for which there was no "vendor." The internet, the World Wide Web, Linux and other open source software, and Web 2.0 all were documented and given mainstream awareness by O'Reilly books and events. We identify and evangelize the disruptive technologies that reinvigorate the industry.
    3. O'Reilly has been a pioneer in the new world of ebooks. In the early 1990s, we co-developed docbook, one of the first standardized formats for ebooks, and the progenitor of future XML-based ebook formats. In 2001, in partnership with the Pearson Technology Group, we launched Safari Books Online, the largest and most comprehensive electronic subscription library of computer books and videos. We've built a successful direct business with DRM-free downloads of ebook bundles that work on any device. We're an early leader in publishing books for the iPhone and other portable reading devices, and understanding how to use ebook channels to reach new customers. And of course, our Tools of Change for Publishing Conference (TOC) has become the place to share knowledge about the changes sweeping through publishing.

    On this last point, I'm particularly excited that as part of this agreement, Microsoft has committed to make its ebooks DRM-free and device-independent. One of our goals at O'Reilly has been to make sure that ebook customers can read them on any device, and have the ability to keep using them even if they change their preferred device. Having Microsoft Press join us in this commitment is a big step forward towards an open ebook market.

    user/tim_o_reilly.txt · 最后更改: 2010/01/11 由 radarman
    O'Reilly Home | O'Reilly Beijing | Ignite China(点燃之夜在中国) | Privacy Policy ©2005-2010, O'Reilly Media, Inc.
    All trademarks and registered trademarks appearing on oreilly.com are the property of their respective owners.
    京ICP备05003502号